Just before the 2020 Presidential elections, I published a book—The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America—in which I laid out the deterioration of American foreign policy and what the next administration needed to do to fix it. I argued that we were at risk of stumbling into any number of avoidable wars that could seriously harm our country. Now, four years later, we may be hours or minutes away from making that fateful plunge.

As I write these words, the United States is sending considerable combat power to the Middle East in advance of a retaliatory strike by Iran against Israel. The Israeli government is warning its citizens to prepare bomb shelters and be prepared for major power outages and limited drinking water for an extended period of time. Iran is reportedly in the final stages of preparing an attack.

The perverse irony of this potential clash of titans in the Middle East is that with deft diplomacy and sober thinking, the situation could have been solved below the threshold of combat long ago. Washington and Tel Aviv, however, seem stuck on repeating all the worst of the tendencies I identified in my 2020 book. In one passage, I wrote:

One other thing I can come close to guaranteeing: if America retains our current status quo of foreign policy, if we refuse to end forever-wars, and if we fail to adopt new ways of thinking in how we engage with the world, we will fail.

This present explosion started with what many in the West believed was out of the blue on October 7, 2023, when Hamas terrorists burst out of Gaza’s security fences and killed more than 1,200 Israeli civilians and soldiers (though Israeli officials reportedly dismissed warnings of an attack a full year in advance). While Israel had every right to respond to the vicious terrorist attacks, they did not have the right to dispense with the laws of warfare in how they responded. The U.S. government was within its rights to support Israel—but it must first ensure the security of our country and avoid a war in the process.

We appear, most regrettably, on auto-pilot mode, heading into yet another Middle East war.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told members of the G7 on Sunday that an attack could come within twenty-four hours. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin declared, without hesitation, “If Israel is attacked, we certainly will help defend Israel.” If anyone had any doubts about what he meant, Austin noted, “You saw us do that in April; you can expect to see us do that again.” The “that” to which he referred was a massive use of United States air and naval power to intercept Iran’s missile and drone retaliation for Israel’s bombing of an Iranian embassy building in Syria. 

To demonstrate that Austin’s claims are not empty, the Department of Defense has ordered the deployment of additional U.S. combat power to the region, including air and naval assets, as well as additional ground troops. An official DoD release claimed these “defensive capabilities are all in support of deterrence and de-escalation.” Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said the best way to deescalate the situation “is for this ceasefire deal to come through, so we can get American hostages out, as well.”

While that briefs well, it is embarrassingly untrue, as Israel just assassinated the chief Hamas negotiator with whom ceasefire talks were ongoing. It was that assassination in the heart of Tehran, in fact, that has been the source of the looming Iranian retaliation (on top of other Israel assassinations of Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon). America may be trying to use diplomatic means to prevent an Iranian response, but our actions are making war more, not less, likely.

Emotions aside, the United States should not get involved if Israel goes to war against Iran. Israel has fought wars in its past, and we did not fight for them, yet they handled their security successfully on their own. The reason Washington provides billions in military assistance every year to Israel is to ensure they are capable of defending themselves. Those efforts have proved successful; Israel can now defend itself with or without American support. 

Iran has potent missile forces, but they are otherwise a mediocre regional military power, not at all equal to the IDF. Furthermore, Israel got into trouble in April of this year when it broke international law by attacking a target in an Iranian embassy compound, prompting an entirely predictable military response from Iran. Last week, Israel assassinated a number of high-ranking officials of both Hamas and Hezbollah in Tehran and Beirut, respectively. The importance of the targets and the politically sensitive locations of the strikes will likely spawn a military response from Iran.

Israel has an obligation to take actions that ensure its security. If Israeli leaders take risks that result in more attacks against Israel, they must be prepared to deal with that situation. What should not happen, however, is for Tel Aviv to expect the United States Armed Forces to fight alongside the IDF. Washington should not be a party in engaging in military operations that run counter to its national security objectives and could draw it into a new Middle Eastern war.

There is nothing for us to gain and everything for us to lose in fighting a war against Iran. It should be a priority for the White House only to risk losing American servicemen and women if U.S. security is put at risk, not because a foreign government, regardless of how friendly, takes action that is likely to prompt an enemy military response. We must stop choosing war—or one day, it may cost us more than we can imagine.

About the Author: Daniel L. Davis 

Daniel L. Davis is a retired Army Lt.Col with four combat deployments. He is a Senior Fellow at Defense Priorities and the host of the Daniel Davis Deep Dive show. Follow him @DanielLDavis1.

Image: Creative Commons.