Rebuilding Ties: Australia and China's Diplomatic Turnaround
Australia-China relations are now much more stable than a year ago.
China, on the other hand, has different strategic considerations. Firstly, as a key security and economic actor in the Indo-Pacific region, Australia is a critical regional ally of the United States. If China insists on its aggressive diplomatic approach toward Australia, it will only push Australia toward the camp of the United States, making the “anti-China club” stronger. In contrast, by mitigating tensions with Australia, China can prevent the anti-China coalition from growing.
Secondly, China seeks to improve its ties with Australia as part of its major effort to boost its global image, moving away from its “wolf-warrior” diplomacy. This shift is aimed at repairing damaged relationships and enhancing cooperation with key actors, including Australia, South Korea, and several European countries.
Lastly, China's domestic challenges, including a decline in economic growth, a deteriorating demographic outlook, and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, have compelled Beijing to shift its policy priorities inward. In this context, China has mitigated tensions with many regional players in order to avoid creating additional problems abroad. This will allow China to address its pressing domestic issues and sustain its national development, particularly its economy. Moreover, by stabilizing relations with Australia and other nations, China has constructed a favorable environment to re-engage with the global community and reinvigorate its economy through bilateral economic initiatives.
Overall, it is certain that Australia-China relations are much more stable than a year ago. This trend will likely be sustained in the first half of 2023 as both sides continue to engage and seek to address controversial issues. However, many existing disputes over security, human rights, and ideological issues remain unaddressed. To that end, it will not be surprising if these disagreements challenge Australia-China ties in the future.
Ray Weichieh Wang is a freelance analyst and contributor for several media outlets, focusing on diplomacy and politics in the Indo-Pacific. His research interests center on international relations in the Indo-Pacific, focusing on China, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. His pieces have appeared in The National Interest, The Diplomat, The News Lens, among other outlets. Wang holds a BS degree in Diplomacy and International Relations from Tamkang University.
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