The tenth European Union (EU) parliamentary election on June 9 saw conservatives, whether they be center-Right Christian Democrats or radical Right populists, outperform their left-wing and liberal counterparts. Of the parties that make up the current ruling coalition, the European People’s Party (EPP), headed by the now president Ursula Von der Leyen, performed the best in this election: the moderate Right is now not only the largest group in the parliament but also outperformed expectations giving the party more leeway in building a coalition. 

The center-Left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), while losing a few seats, remained relatively stable and performed well in Portugal and Sweden. The same cannot be said for the liberal Renew Party (RE), which lost twenty-two seats. Regardless, it remains the third-largest party and received the majority of votes in the Netherlands, Denmark, and the Czech Republic. Both parties expressed their interest in working with Von der Leyen, giving the coalition 407 seats and the EPP enough breathing room to account for any abstentions.

The radical Right also had reason to celebrate. Both the Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) gained four and nine seats, respectively, overtaking the Greens. While the Right, in its various manifestations, was expected to perform well, the sheer number of seats the nationalists obtained was nothing short of historic, considering that ID was only founded five years ago. 

In Italy, the ruling Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) received more than a quarter of the country’s popular vote alone. At the same time, the French Rassemblement National (RN) trounced President Emmanuel Macron’s liberals, obtaining over 31 percent of the nation’s total vote. In Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a right-wing populist party that has skyrocketed in recent years and is no stranger to scandals, received 16 percent of the nation’s votes, beating the incumbent center-Left Social Democratic Party and coming in second behind the Christian Democratic Union. At first glance, the radical Right seems to be on an unstoppable rise across the Old Continent.

This right-wing populist wave, while expected, came as a shock to the establishment parties. In France, Macron called for snap elections after dissolving parliament. There are conflicting theories behind this decision, but the French president has defended his decision by concluding that “the French are intelligent” and will ultimately choose the “progressive bloc.” Ultimately, this didn’t quite pan out as the left-wing coalition received a majority in the parliament, knocking Le Pen’s party down to third place and simultaneously forcing the Liberals to give up their control over the parliament. Conversely, German chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated that there would be no snap election. Still, he recognized the ruling coalition’s bleak results, stating that there could be no return to “business as usual.”

Prior to the election, Von der Leyen was threatened by the left wing of her coalition due to her previous efforts to court Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s incumbent prime minister and president of the ECR. Yet, these were not enough to prevent her from securing another term as president. Von der Leyen was reelected, and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas was elected as the EU’s foreign policy chief. This comes as RE continues to shed representatives following former Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš’s decision to pull his seven members of the European Parliament (MEP) from the party. Therefore, it is likely that the ECR will continue to be normalized as an acceptable conservative party vis-à-vis the Radical Right, with Von der Leyen securing another term as the center folds and the EU shifts to the Right.

While much of the coverage of the radical Right and the EU elections focuses on their victory, further analysis indicates that it is not only far from unified, but that some key parties even underperformed in this past election. There is tension between the ECR and ID, which recently transformed into the Patriots for Europe parliamentary group (PfE), as the former seeks to carve out a new future within the EPP’s orbit. Marine Le Pen, a key figure and former president of RN who recognizes the importance of keeping the Right intact, has argued for a “Far Right supergroup” in the leadup to the election, which envisioned the ECR and ID uniting. Still, it has thus far landed on deaf ears. 

These squabbles are not unique to the right-wing parliamentary groups but also to the parties themselves. The ID leadership had kicked AfD out of the party following a statement made by Maximilian Krah, the German party’s lead candidate for the EU election, that Schutzstaffel (SS) officers should not be considered criminals. The AfD has since expelled Krah in its bid to join a parliamentary group. To make matters worse, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, while still obtaining the most votes, underperformed significantly as the Hungarian opposition made gains in Europe’s conservative bastion.

However, it would be from Orbán’s Fidesz that the most noteworthy news regarding the post-election EU would emerge. The Hungarian leader, along with former Czech PM Andrej Babiš and members of the far Right Freedom Pary of Austria (FPÖ), announced the establishment of Patriots for Europe in late June. The party manifesto outlines the group’s intention to push for sovereigntism, the protection of “European identity, traditions and customs,” and increase border security, among other points.

Bit by bit, members of ID trickled into PfE, making it the parliament’s third-largest group, with Jordan Bardella from RN acting as president. Yet, ID wasn’t the only source of parties as Spain’s far-Right party Vox was poached from the ECR. Whether the PfE will present a serious challenge to the establishment groups and if the ECR will continue to seek legitimization by framing itself as the moderate right-wing of the EU remains to be seen, but what is certain is that infight within the radical Right shows no signs of abating.  

The infighting within Europe’s radical Right plays into Von der Leyen’s hand. As the president of the European Commission seeks to weather the storm, keeping her coalition partners satisfied while opening up the ECR in order to bolster her majority, it is highly likely that the EPP’s plans for the EU will remain consistent. Regardless, the outcome of the elections was equally as positive for Meloni and her ECR since it made her the “kingmaker.” As Von der Leyen and Meloni remain close, it is unlikely this relationship will end any time soon.

As Von der Leyen keeps her job, thus sustaining the uneasy alliance of Europe’s “main political families,” the EU will, as an international actor, continue its current trajectory of supporting Ukraine and practicing caution towards China. With the decision to give Kaja Kallas the top job with the European External Action Service, this path is all but certain to continue based on the Estonian prime minister’s openly pro-NATO and pro-Ukranian stance. With regard to the reactionary wave, it is the area of international affairs that will likely remain untouched. Much like Von der Leyen, the ECR considers China as a “strategic rival” and an “adversary to the interests of Europe and the entire free world.” 

In December of last year, the ECR group reaffirmed its belief that undertaking a “pragmatic and naivety-free approach to relations with the People’s Republic of China” is best in order to sustain the rules-based order. With regard to Ukraine, not only has the party reaffirmed its support and condemned “Russia’s unprovoked, illegal and brutal war of aggression,” but Meloni has also become a staunch supporter of Zelensky and his efforts, something which has cost her support from her right-wing constituencies. As for the United States, the ECR is also positioned within the EU’s Atlanticist bloc.

Based on these facts, it appears, as the French like to say, that plus ça change plus c’est la même chose. Von der Leyen’s opening to the ECR presents no discernible shift in the EU’s foreign policy approach in the near future. Yet, Europe’s rightward shift indicates that there is a general dissatisfaction with the status quo parties. Whether this has to do with the geopolitical ambitions of these parties is yet to be seen. Still, the rise of the radical Right indicates that a sizable chunk of the European electorate is dissatisfied with it. While the party has no real shot at forming a government at this time, the noticeable Russophilia within it showcases that, as Europe creeps further to the Right, the geopolitical alignment of the EU is not guaranteed. In 2024, the center barely held, but the stage is set for a shift in foreign policy. 

​​Erik Piccoli is an Editorial Intern for The National Interest and a Research Assistant for the Illiberalism Studies Program at George Washington University. He has previously worked for the Italian Institute for International Political Studies and the Eurasia Center.

Image: Alexandros Michailidis /  Shutterstock.com.