Russia’s Role in the US Elections: The Case for Caution
The conclusion that Russia hacked its way toward a Trump victory is no slam dunk, despite its plausibility.
[9] “The Perfect Weapon: How Russian Cyberpower Invaded the U.S.,” The New York Times, 13 December 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/us/politics/russia-hack-election-dnc.html
[10] “Bears in the Midst: Intrusion into the Democratic National Committee,” https://www.crowdstrike.com/blog/bears-midst-intrusion-democratic-national-committee/, June 15, 2016
[11] “Sofacy Phishing,” Cyber Threat Operations, Tactical Intelligence Bulletin, October 22 2014, Price Waterhouse Coopers, http://pwc.blogs.com/tactical-intelligence-bulletin---sofacy-phishing.pdf
[12] “The Paradox of Russia’s Support for Trump,” Wilson Center, November 10 2016, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/the-paradox-russias-support-for-trump
[13] “Chinese Cyber Espionage,” Testimony of James C. Mulvenon before the Congressional-Executive Commission on China hearing entitled “Hearing on Chinese Hacking: Impact on Human Rights and Commercial Rule of Law,” 25 June 2013, accessed at https://www.cecc.gov/sites/chinacommission.house.gov/files/CECC%20Hearing%20-%20Chinese%20Hacking%20-%20James%20Mulvenon%20Written%20Statement.pdf
[14] “The First Cyber Espionage Attacks: How Operation Moonlight Maze made history,” July 7 2016, accessed at https://medium.com/@chris_doman/the-first-sophistiated-cyber-attacks-how-operation-moonlight-maze-made-history-2adb12cc43f7#.h6bot1rzo
[15] “Don’t be so sure Russia hacked the Clinton emails,” James Bamford, Reuters, 2 November 2016, accessed at www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-cyberwar-commentary-idUSKBN12X075
[16] “Report to the President of the United States,” The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction, March 31, 2005, p. 180.
[17] “Vladimir Putin accuses Hillary Clinton of encouraging Russian protests,” Miriam Elder, The Guardian, 8 December 2011, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/dec/08/vladimir-putin-hillary-clinton-russia
[18] “Ukraine Crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt Call,” BBC News, 7 February 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
[19] “White House says U.S. will retaliate against Russia for hacking,” Louis Nelson, Politico, October 11 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/white-house-russia-hacking-retaliate-229622
[20] Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton University Press, 1976, p. 65.
[21] Jervis, p. 62.