The Future of Colombia

The state of Colombian democracy is important to the rest of Latin America and the United States. Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela are dictatorships and there are concerns over much of Central America, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia. Argentina is amid an economic crisis and could be in for contentious elections in October 2023. Prospects for Mexico have also deteriorated, with President Andrés Manuel López Obrador silencing critics, tampering with the country’s independent electoral authority, and expanding the military’s role in the economy.

While there is a pressing need to maintain a constructive relationship with Colombia, policy differences between Bogóta and Washington clearly exist, with Petro’s policy toward Venezuela probably being the most challenging. Considering the Colombian leader’s willingness to accommodate Maduro despite his obvious rigging of the upcoming elections, Petro’s refusal to meet Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó in April 2023 during a Colombian-sponsored Latin American, European, and North American conference on unfreezing negotiations between Maduro’s regime and the opposition, and ongoing call for the lifting of sanctions against Venezuela, Colombian-U.S. relations have developed a certain edge. That said, it is important that the relationship remains constructive. More democratic backsliding in Latin America is not in Washington’s interest and plays to the authoritarian narratives out of China and Russia.

Colombian democracy is stressed, confidence in key institutions is sagging, government policy is in drift mode and the country seems to have tired of the government of change in less than a year. The country’s leader is temperamental but has thus far worked his way through the democratic system, having served as a congressman and senator, the mayor of Bogóta, and run for the presidency twice before he was successful in 2022. Moreover, Colombia’s political stability has been challenged before by revolutionary movements, populist uprisings like the Bogotazo of 1948 and drug cartels. It has weathered each storm. It will probably do so again, but there is considerable downside risk as the Petro administration is increasingly embattled. Another round of social turmoil cannot be ruled out.

Dr. Scott B. MacDonald is the Chief Economist for Smith’s Research & Gradings, a Fellow with the Caribbean Policy Consortium, and a Research fellow with Global Americans. Prior to those positions, he worked for the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Credit Suisse, Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette, KWR International, and Mitsubishi Corporation. His most recent book is The New Cold War, China and the Caribbean (Palgrave Macmillan 2022).

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