Editor’s Note: Center for the National Interest President Paul Saunders spoke with Dr. Fumiaki Kubo, the President of Japan’s National Defense Academy, on the state of relations between Washington and Tokyo. The following interview was edited for style and clarity.

Dr. Kubo, you have studied the United States and U.S.-Japan relations for decades. How would you evaluate the U.S.-Japan relationship today?

Essentially, it is positive. We can even say that it is in its best condition since 1945. After Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, Japan dramatically changed its national security policy by doubling its budget for the Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY) 2027 for defense capabilities and complementary initiatives to 2 percent of its GDP in the JFY 2022. The United States, for its part, embraced Japan as its most important partner in competing with China in Asia. 

Japan and the U.S. now have a coordinated policy toward China and Russia, an area where the two countries had some significant differences in the 2010s. In addition, closer coordination is expected between Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. In Japan, JSDF Joint Operations Command (JJOC) is scheduled to be established at the end of FY 2024, and the U.S Senate Armed Services Committee recently passed the FY 2025 National Defense Authorization Act, which requires a plan for the establishment of joint force headquarters in Japan subordinate to U.S. INDOPACOM.

These initiatives will strengthen the Japan-U.S. Alliance and contribute to stability in the Indo-Pacific region. We are expected to respond to regional security challenges under the further reinforced deterrence and response capabilities of the Japan-U.S. Alliance.

You have observed U.S. politics for a long time, especially American conservative thought and politics, and both have evolved considerably in recent years. How do people in Japan see America’s changing foreign policy debates?

The government of Japan worked well with the Trump administration on China because President Trump adopted a tougher approach to China than his predecessors. Despite that, some of Trump’s statements were concerning, such as the idea that Japan should defend itself or that the United States should terminate the alliance with Japan because Japan is not obligated to defend the U.S. mainland if it is attacked.

Many Japanese tend to associate the Republican Party with a proactive internationalist national security policy with force if necessary and the Democratic Party with a stronger domestic orientation. However, it appears today that some Republicans are more inward-looking, and Democrats are slightly more globalist. Even worse, it is as though the United States is becoming more isolationist.

It is difficult for many Japanese to keep up with this radical change. Many wonder whether this change is long-term or only temporary and due to a particular individual.

The United States is increasingly reorienting its national security policy to focus on the Indo-Pacific region and especially China’s potential military threat. This seems to be a bipartisan concern. To what extent is this a priority in Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and the military education system? What are Japan’s top priorities?

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe first announced the “Towards a Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy or vision in 2016. Japan is concerned about China’s potential military threat not only to itself but also to Taiwan. These are the most urgent national security issues for Japan. Moreover, China infringes on the territorial waters of Japan in the area surrounding the Senkaku Islands, which is now regrettably becoming an everyday occurrence.

It is against this background that Japan is extensively assisting Ukraine, although mostly financially, despite the fact that Japan is neither in Europe nor a member of NATO. 

Japan welcomes the way the United States accepted the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy. Both Trump and Biden embraced this phrase. It should be rare for two U.S. presidents from different political parties to accept a foreign policy slogan originating in a foreign country. It is extremely important to recognize the degree to which the United States and Japan have aligned their attitudes toward China and Russia, which differed in the 2010s, as I mentioned above.

Washington is increasingly looking to U.S. allies to expand their military capabilities. Japan has faced a special challenge due to its history and financial situation. What is Japan doing to strengthen its capacity?

The change that occurred in Japan under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is rather remarkable.

In 2022, the Kishida cabinet decided that in JFY 2027, Japan would increase its budget for defense capabilities and complementary initiatives from 1 percent to 2 percent of its GDP and that it would possess counterstrike capabilities. These measures mark a break from past policies. After Russia invaded Ukraine, however, the public appears to have accepted the new orientation of the national security policy of the government.

The remaining and possibly the most serious concern is that there is no consensus yet regarding the long-term funding source for the aforementioned defense spending increase, even among politicians of the ruling parties. The public is strongly against tax increases even in this tense international situation. 

Chinese and Russian officials regularly refer to the idea of a multipolar international system in an effort to suggest that it has replaced the post-Cold War system defined by U.S. international leadership. How does Japan see the international system changing in the coming decades? 

There is a sense of crisis among leading scholars and experts in national security in Japan regarding the future of a rule-based international order. It was not perfect; there is no perfect international order for every country worldwide. However, it has been a system where Japan has lived comfortably and peacefully with a small military and an alliance with the United States, enjoying economic prosperity that it could not achieve through force before 1945. After the end of the Cold War, this U.S.-led system appears to have received wider acceptance worldwide.

However, as indicated, this is being seriously challenged. This is why Japan considers Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seriously. It is a blatant violation of the norms and principles of the rule-based international order. What is happening in Ukraine today may happen in Asia tomorrow, as Prime Minister Kishida stated. Japan is hopeful that the United States will continue to play its leadership role, regardless of who is elected in November this year.

Fumiaki Kubo is the president of the National Defense Academy of Japan and an emeritus professor in the graduate schools for law and politics at the University of Tokyo, where he taught for eighteen years. Prior to this role, he was a professor at the Department of Law of Keio University for fifteen years, a Japan Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center in 2014, and the President of the Japanese Association for American Studies in 2016–2018. Earlier in his career, he was a Visiting Scholar at The Johns Hopkins University and an assistant professor or visiting scholar at many other U.S. and Japanese universities. He earned a B.A. and a Ph.D. in Law from the University of Tokyo. Dr. Kubo is an expert on the United States, U.S. foreign policy, and the U.S.-Japan relationship. The views expressed above do not represent those of the government of Japan. 

Image: Gints Ivuskans / Shutterstock.com.