China also faces the challenge of balancing its relations with Israel. For many decades, China and Israel have maintained a highly productive technological partnership, which was further intensified in the 2000s by the Israeli boom. In confidential talks, U.S. officials have expressed their concerns about this cooperation and tried to dissuade Israel from Beijing.

Another important factor is China’s geopolitical interests: China is seizing the opportunity to establish itself as a counterweight to the United States in the Gulf region. As early as March 2023, Beijing promoted a rapprochement between long-time rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. Observers in Washington were surprised by these developments among one of their closest allies and feared that Riyadh could possibly join Beijing’s sphere of influence.

Saudi Arabia’s Oil Power

Since President Franklin D. Roosevelt met King Abd al-Aziz Ibn Saud on the USS Quincy on February 14, 1945, the U.S.-Saudi relationship has been one of the most important geopolitical alliances after World War II. Since the “security for oil” agreement, Washington has protected the kingdom, while Riyadh has guaranteed stable oil prices. However, the current Saudi leadership doubts the reliability of U.S. protection, as the fracking boom in the United States has brought about its energy independence.

International oil prices are still influenced by the OPEC cartel, along with crises such as the war between Iran and Israel. For the foreseeable future, Saudi Arabia will remain the only “swing” producer that can produce oil quickly and in enormous quantities to keep prices bearable for Western and Asian economies.

This explains why Biden traveled to Riyadh in July 2022 to ask Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) for cooperation, even though he had previously wanted to condemn him as a “pariah.” Biden’s efforts failed: Saudi Arabia did not increase production. Instead, OPEC decided in October 2022 to reduce supply by two million barrels per day, boosting oil prices.

The crown prince could once again take revenge on Biden and support Trump ahead of the U.S. elections on November 5 by reducing oil production and increasing gas prices for U.S. consumers. 

Stiff Challenges Facing the Next U.S. Administration

Trump promises both closer relations with Saudi Arabia and a tougher course towards its archrival Iran without being clear how he will accomplish it. With the Democratic Party divided, Harris has been largely silent except to say that she supports Israel but desperately wants a ceasefire. Isolating Iran—the United States’ traditional stance—will only increase Tehran’s dependence on Moscow and Beijing, boosting their roles. Creating a balance of power in the Middle East will be a regional test for whether and how the U.S. power can navigate and flourish in the growing multipolar world.

Mathew Burrows is a Counselor in the Executive Office of the Stimson Center and the Program Lead of its Strategic Foresight Hub.

Josef Braml is the European Director of the Trilateral Commission.

Image: Orlok / Shutterstock.com.