On this, Lai undoubtedly has the bigger advantage. How will Hou or Ko deal with a potential Chinese military clash? How would such an administration react to increases in Beijing’s gray-zone warfare? There is simply insufficient evidence in either the careers of Hou or Ko for the United States to predict and strategize accordingly. 

Washington’s Quiet Leanings

Despite the perceived drawbacks associated with Lai and the DPP, and the United States remaining mum about its preferred candidate, Washington may inherently prefer Lai to enter Taiwan’s presidential office come January 13. 

The positive rapport cultivated during Tsai’s presidency and Lai’s pledge to continue Tsai’s foreign policy initiatives resonates strongly with American policymakers. While concerns surrounding Lai’s pro-independence stance and potential repercussions for the trilateral relationship persist, Washington remains most familiar with the DPP. Lai presents the most predictable, stable, and cautious candidate to take up office.

The election outcome will indisputably shape the dynamic between the United States, Taiwan, and China, prompting careful observation of how Taiwan’s next elected leader will navigate the inevitable challenges in this trilateral relationship. 

Samuel Ng holds a Bachelor of Laws (Hons) and Bachelor of International Business from the Queensland University of Technology. He is a Westpac Asian Scholar for Taiwan. His research interests include cross-strait relations and East Asian politics.

Image: Shutterstock.com.