On August 21, 2018, General John Nicholson passed command of NATO’s Afghanistan mission to Lieutenant General Scott Miller. In his final press conference, Nicholson stated the strategy is working and just needs more time. He was the seventeenth commander of Afghanistan and his parting statement sounds very much like the previous sixteen. Given some of the most successful military leaders of this generation have command there, why does Afghanistan still remain unstable?
Clearly, Afghanistan has a very along history of ejecting foreign forces. On January 13, 1842, Assistant Surgeon William Brydon, bloodstained and exhausted , reached the British Fort at Jalalabad. When asked where the rest of the army was, he managed to reply “I am the Army.” Thus the British learned their 20,000-man army in Afghanistan had been wiped out. Though it is perhaps the most famous example of a Western army being defeated by a mountain people, it is certainly not the only one.
From Alexander’s three year campaign (329 to 327 BC) to control Bactria (what is now Afghanistan) to the present, military history is littered with of stories of major powers, confident of victory, venturing into the territory of mountain people—only to be ejected.
The English first began serious efforts to subdue Scotland in the twelfth century, but it took centuries of fighting before the Act of Union joined the two countries in 1707. Even this did not end Scottish resistance as the Scots rebelled in 1715 and 1745—and argue about independence to this day. The Russians have been fighting on and off in the Caucasus since the early 1700s, and still struggle to suppress terrorist groups in the region. The Maronite Christians of Lebanon have held their mountains against Muslims for over a thousand years.
Outside powers can win against mountain people but it takes decades to centuries. Afghans , Chechens , Kurds , Montagnards (which literally means “mountain people” in French), Scots, Welsh , Swiss, Druze and Maronite Christians have all repeatedly seen off outsiders. Although the Scots and Welsh were finally integrated into the United Kingdom, it took centuries to conquer each nation. Most importantly, the English had strong strategic reasons for pursuing these campaigns. First, the English kings truly believed the territories rightfully belonged to them. This drove the over two century-long effort of the English to conquer Wales. Later, as England faced continental enemies, it could not accept an independent Scotland that repeatedly allied with continental foes. Thus, England was willing to pay a high price to finally subjugate the Scots.
Virtually every mountain society has stories of outside invaders turned away. These stories form a central element in the people’s identities. Also central to mountain identities are the long-running internal feuds . Families and clans have engaged in disputes that have lasted for centuries. Inevitably outsiders who enter the mountains get drawn into these feuds although they rarely understand them. In her book No Friends but the Mountains , Judith Matloff takes the reader on an intimate tour of mountain societies from the Sierra Madre to the Caucasus to the Himalayas and Andes. She notes that while mountains contain only 10 percent of the world’s population, they were home to twenty-three of the twenty-seven wars at the time of her writing. She also highlights the blood feuds that complicate governance in the mountains.
Switzerland, now seen as one of the most stable, democratic and prosperous nations in the world, took centuries to work out its internal government issues. First formed in 1291 by an alliance of three cantons, it was not until 1848 the Swiss agreed to unify under a single government. Prior to that, there was a great deal of internal conflict. Even today, the twenty-six cantons and three thousand communes (municipalities) retain a great deal of independence in deciding local issues. Even as a modern, highly urban society , the presence of three thousand communes in a tiny nation indicates the Swiss retain the mountain culture’s desire for local governance. It is also important to realize that outsiders will often not like their decisions because they will not reflect outside values. For instance, Swiss women did not get the right to vote in federal elections until 1971. The last canton to grant women the right to vote on local issues, Appenzell Ausserrhoden, only did so in 1991 and only when ordered to by the Federal Supreme Court of Switzerland.
Clearly, “Leave mountain people alone” should be a rule of thumb at least as prominent as “ Never fight a land war in Asia .” But it isn’t. It is time war colleges integrate this rule of thumb into their curriculums. Politicians commit the nation to war, not military officers. But it is the military officers that assure the politicians they can win. Despite seventeen years of campaigning by American, allied and Afghan national forces, security in Afghanistan continues to deteriorate. Perhaps if U.S. decisionmakers understood they were was entering a fight with mountain people, their expectations would have been more realistic.