It is very reminiscent of the Biden NATO policy, of which the pressing existential question was always: is it real or is it fake? NATO expansion, in their hands, was not a diplomatic demarche in the old-fashioned sense. Instead, it was a magic trick—of the “now you see it, now you don’t” variety—with which the Biden administration simultaneously baited Russia and reassured Ukrainian nationalists, but then took it all back once it spoke directly to the American people, as Biden did in December 2021 when he made clear that the United States would not send U.S. forces to Ukraine.

It’s still not clear what are the limits, if any, to the U.S. commitment to Ukraine. The Biden administration wants both to avoid war with Russia and to decisively affect the war’s outcome. That pushes it, very dangerously, toward Russian red lines.

Will this magic trick deployed with such ill consequences in Ukraine make a renewed appearance in the Pacific? Will the Biden administration lunge forward or back off? It is difficult to say, because it wants to do both of these things. Electorally, Biden’s team must shudder at the consequences of a full-blown war of sanctions with China. Diplomatically, it is committed to doing just that. With such confusion of purpose, events rather than people may be in the saddle, there to “ride mankind.”

David C. Hendrickson is President of the John Quincy Adams Society and the author of Republic in Peril: American Empire and the Liberal Tradition (Oxford, 2018). His website is davidhendrickson.org.

Image: Reuters.