This week according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) the United States reported that there were more than 380,000 cases of COVID-19 any nearly 12,000 deaths – while almost 20,000 people have recovered so far. The numbers could become far worse, warned health experts, but were earlier warnings dismissed?

The first outbreak of the coronavirus was identified in Wuhan, China on December 31 of last year, and since that time has spread rapidly throughout the world. While it was declared Public a Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30, 2020, it wasn't until 12 days later on February 11 that the World Health Organization (WHO) officially named the coronavirus disease COVID-19. A month later on March 11, WHO characterized COVID-19 as a pandemic.

Yet, even before it was named – and just after the Public Health Emergency was declared, a briefing document put together by U.S. Army North and dated February 3, warned that "between 80,000 and 150,000 could die." This was according to an unclassified briefing document that was first reported by The Daily Beast.

This needs to be put in context, however. The Army's briefing was framed as a "Black Swan" or worst-case scenario assessment – first popularized by the mathematician Nicholas Nassim Taleb, such events have three characteristics: "rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability."

Moreover, while the Army's briefing document was reportedly seen by the heads of the U.S. Northern Command and U.S. Army North, and was also sent to senior military leadership, but it is less clear if the document was sent to anyone higher up – notably President Donald Trump.

Throughout February the White House had downplayed how serious the outbreak was, and in March the President told Fox News host Sean Hannity that the coronavirus was not that severe. More recently the White House coronavirus task force has assessed that 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die from the disease, a number the president has called "sobering."

The U.S. military has since responded that the warnings from February were still absolute "worst-case," but as The Daily Beast noted the black swan estimates did correctly state that asymptomatic people can "easily" transmit the virus. The estimates also predicted that military infections would occur at the same rate of the general population, but as of the end of March, the rate of troop infection has outpaced that of civilians.

"The reality of it is that you want us planning for the worst-case scenarios, you want us planning for the what-ifs—us thinking ahead into all those things that might and could possibly happen and that's what we've been doing, not only on this particular effort but on a myriad of different threats we face to the homeland," NORTHCOM commander Gen. Terrence O'Shaughnessy explained at the Pentagon as reported by Business Insider.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.