Former President Donald Trump’s conviction last week in the Stormy Daniels hush money case has potential ramifications for the ongoing presidential campaign.

Will the conviction help, or hurt, Trump’s chances of rewinning the White House?

Here’s what the polls are finding.

Examining the poll results on Donald Trump

According to Axios, a YouGov poll taken in the immediate aftermath of the Trump verdict found that “27% of voters said the conviction made them less likely to vote for Trump, while 26% said they were more likely to vote for him and 39% said the verdict “makes no difference” in how they’ll vote.”

But predictably, the poll results were highly partisan: 50% of Republicans answered that they were more likely to vote for Trump after the conviction, whereas 44% of Democrats answered that they were less likely to vote for Trump. Of course, most Republicans and Democrats have long since developed an opinion of Trump and consider the polarizing former president in the starkest terms. Said another way, many voters will vote for Trump no matter what, whereas many voters will not vote for Trump, no matter what.

An ABC News poll, taken before the conviction, found that “Eighty percent of Trump’s supporters say they’d stick with him even if he’s convicted of a felony in [the hush money case],” which ABC noted, “leaves 20 percent who say they’d either reconsider their support (16 percent) or withdraw it (4 percent).”

The Washington Post, meanwhile, reported that “depending upon how pollsters ask the question, you can get upward of 3 in 10 Republicans to indicate that a conviction would give them pause,” but noted that “giving one pause is not the same as ditching Trump – far from it.”

Joe Biden Should Be Loving the Polls 

Some polls also asked respondents for their head-to-head preference on Trump v. Biden and a head-to-head if Trump were convicted.

The numbers varied, but in each poll, a Trump conviction benefited Biden. The most extreme swing was gauged in The New York Times/Siena poll, which found Trump went from +4 to -10 after a conviction.

The Wall Street Journal, NBC News, and Marquette found that Biden picked up five, seven, and eight points, respectively.

The Reuters poll found the least significant movement, with Biden gaining just two points. The Reuters poll was also the only poll that found Biden ahead of Trump without a conviction; each of the other polls found Trump ahead with either a four- or five-point margin.

“These polls would suggest that at least some Trump supporters who say they would merely “reconsider” would be inclined to desert Trump, too, if forced to choose,” The Washington Post reported. “And even if the shift is just two points on the margins (which is currently the low end in the polling,) that could very well matter. After all, we’re a country in which the last two presidential races have been decided by about one percentage point in the key states.”

So, the initial polls suggest Biden will benefit from Trump’s conviction. But remember that Trump is the ultimate political Rasputin, seemingly unkillable politically, who now can claim, plausibly, that the establishment is out to get him.   

About the Author: Harrison Kass 

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.