Putin's Worst Nightmare: Russia's Military Offensive In Ukraine Might Be 'Out of Steam'

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June 12, 2024 Topic: Security Region: Europe Blog Brand: The Buzz Tags: RussiaUkraineWar In UkrainePutinRussian MilitaryDefense

Putin's Worst Nightmare: Russia's Military Offensive In Ukraine Might Be 'Out of Steam'

This is the first day in almost a month that the Russian casualties in Ukraine fell below the 1,000 mark—a likely indicator that the Russian offensives are running out of steam. 

 

Summary and Key Points: Heavy fighting continues along the contact line in Ukraine, particularly in the Donbas region.

Ukraine War

 

-The Russian military is attempting to capture the town of Chasiv Yar to secure a strategic position, while Ukrainian forces fiercely defend it. British Military Intelligence reports that Russian forces have made limited gains, including control of the village of Ivanivske.

-The fighting is intense, with high Russian casualties as they employ dismounted infantry and heavy artillery. The strategic importance of Chasiv Yar lies in its position on a plateau and its logistical significance.

-Despite high casualties, the Russian military continues its efforts, though their offensives appear to be losing momentum.

Ukrainian Forces Resist as Russian Military Advances in Donbas

There is heavy fighting going on multiple places along the contact line in Ukraine. Perhaps the heaviest combat is located in the Donbas, where the two militaries are battling out for a small town.

Heavy Fighting in the Donbas

The heavy fighting in the Donbas continues. The Russian military is trying to capture the town of Chasiv Yar to better position itself for further advances in the area. On the other side, the Ukrainian forces are fighting back with determination in an attempt to protect an important logistical hub.

“Russian Ground Forces (RGF) have likely achieved a limited break-in of an eastern suburb of Chasiv Yar, a town located approximately 8km [about 5 miles] to the west of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest operational estimate on the war.

In addition to these gains, the Russian military has likely taken control of the small village of Ivanivske, which is located southeast of Chasiv Yar.

“Heavy fighting is reported in the urban areas, with the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) contesting RGF advances. Russian forces likely remain on the east side of a canal that runs through the city, which presents an obstacle to their advance,” the British Military Intelligence added.

T-90 Russian Tank

“It is highly likely that the RGF is employing a dismounted infantry approach to clearing the suburbs, and that the Russian casualty rate is high,” the British Military Intelligence stated.

As we have previously stated here in The National Interest, the quality of the Russian troops isn’t very high. Indeed, Russian commanders are treating their troops—a combination of Russian recruits, prisoners, Chechen fighters, and African mercenaries—as nothing more than cannon fodder, sending wave after wave of troops into the Ukrainian positions to attrite the defenders and their resources.

In combination with the dismounted infantry attacks, the Russian military is relying heavily on long-range fires, particularly artillery. The Russian forces are pouring artillery fire on the Ukrainian positions, using thousands of shells every day, including thermobaric munitions that can destroy whole city blocks in one go.

“Chasiv Yar is likely of value to Russia due to its strategic position on a plateau, as well as its historic use as a logistics hub for the UAF,” the British Military Intelligence added.

Russian Casualties in Ukraine

Meanwhile, Russian casualties continue to be high. Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian military claims to have killed, wounded, or captured approximately 980 Russian troops, as well as destroyed or damaged 60 tactical vehicles and fuel trucks, 46 artillery pieces and multiple launch rocket systems, 19 unmanned aerial systems, 11 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 9 main battle tanks, two cruise missiles, two air defense systems, and two pieces of special equipment.

This is the first day in almost a month that the Russian casualties fall below the 1,000 mark—a likely indicator that the Russian offensives are running out of steam. However, the Russian military has shown a remarkable force generation capability.

About the Author 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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