What You Need to Know: As Russia's war against Ukraine drags on, President Vladimir Putin has raised the size of his military to over 1.5 million troops, deploying personnel from various branches, including sailors from the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov.

-These sailors, now forming a "frigate mechanized battalion," signal Moscow's determination to continue its attritional strategy despite the lack of military expertise among its naval personnel. While critics argue this indicates desperation, historical precedents like U.S. forces in Iraq show that redeploying non-combat personnel is not uncommon.

-As Russia commits more troops, the war is shaping up to be a final battle of attrition between both sides.

Russia Sends the Crew of the Admiral Kuznetsov to Ukraine

Moscow has been forced to invest far more resources, time, and political capital than it had planned into its war against Ukraine. Recently Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered another increase in the size of Russia’s military, raising his army’s size to over 1.5 million active service members.

Clearly, the original Russian strategy for winning Ukraine did not go according to plan. 

What’s Going On?

At the same time, Kyiv continues with the façade that it can, in fact, decisively defeat the Russians on the battlefield, if only Ukraine were given another round of aid. But the key difference between Russia and Ukraine is that Ukraine is running out of people to throw into the meat grinder, irrespective of whether it receives limitless military support from NATO. 

Russia is engaged in what its own people now consider to be an existential war against Ukraine, Russia is sending basically every man they can muster into the fray, including members of the Russian Aerospace Defense Forces and its navy. Specifically, sailors from Russia’s shambolic aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, are being formed into what Moscow refers to as a “frigate mechanized battalion.”

Some observers believe this indicates Russian desperation. They certainly are desperate. But that doesn’t mean they’re losing. Indeed, during the darkest moments of the Iraq War, the United States routinely redeployed Air Force and Navy personnel to the deserts of Iraq to augment the force there. 

For Moscow, it seems that this mobilization is the final push for the Russian Federation into finally achieving their objectives in Ukraine.

The Ukraine War is a frightening portent of the future of ground warfare. It isn’t high-tech. It’s unconventional. It’s muddy. It’s bloody. And it’s predicated upon the timeless factor of attrition – something most war planners have striven to avoid since the harrowing experiences of the First World War, in which the great powers of that day were all relatively well-matched against each other. Technological advantages were nullified and made to fall back on attrition and gruesome trench warfare. 

This is precisely how the Ukraine War has played out.

This is Attritional War

Attritional warfare is not about which side has better technological force multipliers. It’s about which side has meat to feed the grinder. While Russia is suffering a massive demographic decline, it still has more people to call upon for its war effort than does Ukraine. Russia, as a commodities superpower, has the supply chain, as well as the humming defense industrial base it needs to sustain its war effort for at least another year. 

So, marching the crew of the broken Admiral Kuznetsov into the fray as a “mechanized” unit of some kind isn’t really about how much training the crew has received. Let’s face it, sailors aren’t soldiers, no matter how hard they try. What this is about, however, is just having enough mass at the appropriate time to break the back of Ukraine’s resistance. In that way, the crew of the Admiral Kuznetsov has its role to play. 

One way or the other, we’re in the last gasp before the final plunge by both sides in the Ukraine War. 

Author Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock. 

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