What You Need to Know: Ukrainian suicide drones have destroyed multiple Russian ammunition depots, including a massive strike on September 18 that obliterated 30,000 tons of ammo and caused an earthquake in Russia’s Toropets region.

-British Military Intelligence confirmed additional Ukrainian UAV strikes at Tikhoretsk and Toropets on September 20-21.

-These attacks have severely disrupted Russian artillery supplies, critical in a war where long-range fires have caused 85% of casualties.

-Despite Russia’s extensive air defense, Ukrainian drones continue to penetrate deep into Russian territory, highlighting Ukraine’s effective use of limited resources in this war of attrition.

-Ukrainian suicide drones destroyed more Russian ammunition depots after a strike last week that was so large it caused an earthquake inside Russia.

Drones Strikes Inside Russia

“Overnight on 20-21 September 2024, Ukrainian forces struck Russian ammunition depots at Tikhoretsk in Krasnodar and another site at Toropets in Tver with UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles],” the British Military Intelligence stated in its latest operational estimate of the war.

This strike comes in the wake of a previous kinetic mission against one of the Russian military’s largest ammunition depots, also located in Toropets. During that strike, on September 18, the Ukrainian military “almost certainly destroyed 30,000 tons of ammunition in open and bunker storage.”

The explosion was so powerful that it caused a mild earthquake in the area, and its impact and subsequent fires could be seen from space.

“The strikes will almost certainly cause, at a minimum, short-term disruption to Russian artillery and small-arms munitions supplies, critical resources in a war of attrition dominated by mass fires,” the British Military Intelligence added.

Long-range fires is the number one source of casualties in the war by a mile. Estimates put the number of losses caused by artillery and rocket launchers at approximately 85 percent of total casualties. Considering that the Russian forces have lost approximately 650,000 men, and the Ukrainian military around 350,000 to 400,000 troops, long-range fires are responsible for killing or wounding more than 850,000 troops.

“The total tonnage of ammunition destroyed across the three sites represents the largest loss of Russian and North Korean supplied ammunition during the war,” the British Military Intelligence added.

The Russian forces can fire up to 20,000 artillery rounds each day when the fighting is at its most intense. This is a huge number, especially if stretched out in hundreds of days. The Russian defense industry has had trouble keeping up with the demands, forcing the Kremlin to seek help from rather unsavory partners like North Korea and Iran.

“These major strikes in quick succession demonstrate that, despite Russia deploying an extensive layered air-defence posture (including fighter jets) surrounding Ukraine, they continue to struggle against Ukrainian UAVs employed in deep-strike operations into Russia,” the British Military Intelligence added.

The Ukrainians have achieved a lot with little, using suicide drones and homegrown missiles to their maximum effectiveness.

“It is highly likely this will force further dispersals in the Russian logistics chain for fear of additional strikes, increasing the burden on an already stretched system,” the British Military Intelligence concluded.

Imagine the Potential

These recent successful strikes show what the Ukrainian military could achieve were it was given the green light to deploy munitions provided by the West, like the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), Storm Shadow cruise missile, and SCALP-EG cruise missiles, against targets inside Russia.

Currently, the Ukrainian forces can’t use these munitions to strike targets within Russia. A quick assessment identifies up to 300 Russian high-value military targets within easy distance from the border. But, the U.S. and NATO have been hesitant to give the green light out of fear of escalation by Moscow. As the history of this war has shown, that is an overblown fear.

About the Author: 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

Image Credit: Creative Commons.