What You Need to Know: The Ukraine war has devolved into a brutal war of attrition, with high daily casualty rates reported by various sources. The static nature of the conflict and minimal territorial gains highlight the heavy toll on Russia's military strength.

-Additionally, economic constraints and a limited pool of human capital make it challenging for Russia to replenish its losses quickly.

-As a result, the military may struggle to regenerate, potentially diminishing Russia's future combat effectiveness.

Russia's Military Degradation: High Casualties Impact Future Strength

What will the end effect of the Russo-Ukraine War be on the Russian military? Will Putin’s forces be degraded through attrition, or will a hardened and experienced fighting force emerge from the conflict? 

Asked another way, will Russia’s military come through the conflict better or worse? While experience has no substitute, my best guess would be that Russia emerges from the conflict in worse shape. The sheer total concerning carnage, human and industrial, is going to be difficult to offset with any amount of experience gained. 

And remember, Russia doesn’t have a robust enough economy, nor the human capital, to regenerate from loss in the way that China or the United States has. What Russia does seem to have is the ability to endure loss and suffering uniquely. Accordingly, Russia may fare better, post-conflict, than others who sustained similar losses might. But the losses are significant, and will be hard to replenish, and won’t be worth the experience gained.

War of Attrition in Ukraine

Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has long since degenerated into a war of attrition, where infantry and tanks slog over inches and miles. Given Russia’s military strength relative to Ukraine, the static nature of the conflict is something of an embarrassment.

The territory gained, to date, has hardly been worth the investment or the suffering. The losses are difficult to comprehend, resulting from the most vicious fighting on the European continent since the Allies stormed encircled, and destroyed Nazi Germany.

Concerning Russian losses, the conflict only seems to be getting worse.

“Russia sustained the highest number of casualties in a single month in September,” Newsweek reported. “Russia’s average daily casualty count hit 1,271 in September,” according to a UK assessment. Meanwhile, Russia’s total casualty count “is rapidly approaching a milestone of 650,000,” the UK reported. 

Granted, casualty counts conducted during an active war are unlikely to be accurate; warring factions tend to keep their casualty counts obscured. Still, the British count and the Ukrainian count of Russian casualties were both close to the 650,000 mark. That’s a hard number to comprehend, especially given the lack of substantive gain. The numbers are so high because of Russia’s use of “meat grinder” assaults in which massive waves of soldiers are used to attack Ukrainian positions.

“Ukrainian tallies and Western estimates broadly agree that the invasion effort Moscow launched more than two and a half years ago has cost Russia dearly, not least among its experienced personnel and its valuable military equipment,” Newsweek reported.  

And that’s just it. With casualty counts so high, the people with experience are unlikely to participate in the next conflict, meaning the experience is canceled out. And moving forward, Russia just doesn’t have the able-bodied men or the industrial capacity to replenish quickly. Western sanctions will make regeneration more difficult still.

In sum, Russia’s military is likely to exit the conflict having been degraded.

About the Author: Harrison Kass 

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.

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