What You Need to Know: The Scarborough Shoal has become a focal point of rising tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has accused China of "harassment and intimidation" in the region, which is rich in natural resources and strategically significant for shipping lanes.

-Control over the shoal could allow China to project power over neighboring countries and potentially threaten Taiwan's southern maritime passages. Despite international rulings affirming the Philippines' rights within its Exclusive Economic Zone, China's assertive actions continue.

-The situation raises concerns about China's broader regional ambitions and the possibility of escalating conflicts in the Indo-Pacific.

Flashpoint for World War III: The Scarborough Shoal 

“Harassment and intimidation” are how Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., has described China’s actions throughout the South China Sea (SCS), specifically in the area known as the Scarborough Shoal. These words were spoken by the besieged Philippine president at the most recent meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Chinese Premier Li Qiang was among the many foreign representatives at the ASEAN conference. 

To punctuate his point, and exasperation, about China’s expansionistic and illegal behavior, Marcos advocated for, “more urgency in the pace of the negotiations of the ASEAN-China code of conduct.” 

Marcos explained further that his forces, which international arbitrators have determined under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) are operating within their national waters, “continue to be subjected to harassment and intimidation” by Chinese forces illegally operating in Philippine waters, as well as international waters.

Al Jazeera that the Chinese Coast Guard and the Philippine Navy clashed at sea and in the air a whopping six times in August over key areas of the SCS. Five of those incidents took place “at or near Scarborough Shoal […] an area that is within the Philippines’ 200-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) but where China claims sovereignty.” 

Why Does the Scarborough Shoal Matter?

The Scarborough Shoal is a key strategic point in the SCS. It sits at the epicenter of the region, which is itself one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. More importantly, there sits beneath the seabed immense quantities of untapped natural gas and oil deposits that China very much covets for itself. 

Similarly, there are highly lucrative fishing areas in the region that China desperately wants to dominate. The Shoal itself, being the epicenter of the SCS, allows for whichever power controls it to have power projection into multiple strategically significant areas. 

From the Shoal, the dominant force could project power not only against the nearby Philippines but Indonesia and Malaysia as well. Further, the nation that controls the Scarborough Shoal can complicate Vietnam’s bid to be a potent player in the SCS. If China did come to own the Shoal, either officially or unofficially, then Beijing could better defend Hainan Island, which many have called “China’s Hawaii.”

More importantly, of course, by dominating the Scarborough Shoal, the Chinese Navy and Coast Guard, which has become yet another arm of China’s maritime power projection capabilities, can threaten the southern maritime passes right into Taiwan. 

China’s leader, President Xi Jinping, has already declared his intention to take Taiwan before the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China: the year 2049. Most experts, however, believe that China’s bid to absorb Taiwan into its growing regional empire will occur much sooner than 2049.

Getting Ready for China to Drop the Hammer (and Sickle)

Indeed, the U.S. military is conditioning its forces to prepare for the year 2027. However, it must be stressed that China is ready to invade Taiwan now. If Beijing can become the master of the South China Sea, specifically the Scarborough Shoal, it will be within striking distance of southern Taiwan. 

An invasion and/or blockade of Taiwan would be in the offing as soon as Beijing’s rulers believed they had control over the SCS and the Scarborough Shoal. 

For China, this is all geostrategic. They want Taiwan. For them to achieve this objective, they must control the surrounding regions to choke Taiwan off when the time is right. 

China has already indicated its willingness to risk wider conflict with the Philippines for the Scarborough Shoal and the SCS. Beijing will not be deterred by any ASEAN-negotiated settlement. 

Beijing believes the West is weak and that it can expand with relatively little pushback. What’s more, China’s rulers are coming to the accurate conclusion that the Americans are the weakest they have ever been in the Indo-Pacific whereas China is probably the strongest it has been there in centuries. 

With the balance of power shifting decisively in China’s favor, Beijing is unlikely to compromise or stand down. China will take what it wants in the SCS as a means of being one step closer to taking Taiwan.

Author Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock. 

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