What You Need to Know: Following reports that a Russian Su-34 was shot down by a Ukrainian-operated F-16, Moscow has remained notably quiet. Instead of acknowledging the incident, pro-Kremlin sources highlighted an unrelated Su-34 strike on a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk region.

-This failure to address the downed aircraft directly contrasts with previous Russian strategies of deflection. As Russian losses mount, including a significant portion of its Su-34 fleet, dissatisfaction among pro-Kremlin bloggers is growing.

-Despite ongoing intense fighting in Kursk, Ukraine holds ground, and the Kremlin may be banking on U.S. political shifts to negotiate a more favorable resolution.

Russia's Strange Response to Claims Su-34 Downed by F-16

A day after reports circulated on social media that a Russian Aerospace Force's Sukhoi Su-34 (NATO reporting name Fullback) was shot down in Ukraine, likely by an American-made F-16 Fighting Falcon, Moscow has been surprisingly quiet.

This is made all the more notable as it was pro-Kremlin milbloggers who first reported that the Russian fighter-bomber aircraft was lost. Instead of even acknowledging the loss – and putting the blame on something else as has been the play Moscow has previously employed – it opted to go in another direction.

On Sunday, Russian state media reported a Russian Su-34 was employed in an attack in "the border area" of the Kursk region, and attacked a "Ukrainian stronghold" with an advanced form of ordnance.

"The crew of the Russian Su-34 fighter jet carried out a strike on a Ukrainian stronghold and manpower in the border area of the Kursk Region. The strike was carried out by air bombs with the unified glide/adjustment module," the Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement to Tass.

The Su-34, a crucial asset for Russian air operations, has suffered significant losses during the conflict, with up to a quarter of Russia's pre-war fleet destroyed. Even with increased production, Moscow remains unable to keep pace with the losses.

What Wasn't Said on the Su-34 Fullback

What Tass didn't report could speak volumes – it didn't address the claims by the milbloggers or Kyiv that a Su-34 had been shot down. It also didn't specify that the Su-34 completed its mission successfully and returned to base.

Notably, it only acknowledged that a Ukrainian stronghold was targeted in the border area of the Kursk region, without stating whether it was in Russian territory.

Ukraine launched an invasion into the Russian Oblast in August, and the fighting has been incredibly intense in recent days as the Kremlin launched what has been seen as a major offensive to drive out Kyiv's forces.

In its most recent intelligence briefing, the London-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested that the Russian military was attempting to regain as much territory as possible before "unfavorable weather" sets in, which could give Ukraine's troops time to dig in and fortify their position.

Despite intense fighting, Ukraine continues to hold ground inside of Russia.

"Regarding the Kursk operation, Russia tried to push back our positions, but we are holding the designated lines," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address on Saturday evening, Reuters reported.

Pro-Kremlin bloggers have already been critical of the handling of the war, and the fact that Russian territory remains occupied – and likely will continue to be throughout the winter – while another high-value asset will likely only result in amplified criticism. While the milbloggers have remained supportive of Russian President Vladimir Putin, it isn't clear how long their loyalty will remain.

The war has long gone on for more than two-and-a-half years, and Russia appears not any closer to victory. Yet, there has been speculation that the Kremlin is waiting until after the U.S. presidential election – in a hope that a Trump victory could result in a peace that is more favorable for Moscow. However, Kyiv holding even an inch of Russian territory could complicate matters greatly.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].

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