The F-16 Fighter Won't Win the War for Ukraine Against Russia
According to reports, a Russian Su-34 was going for a bombing run over contested Ukrainian territory when one of the American-provided F-16s shot it down, killing its crew.
A Ukrainian F-16 Shoots Down a Russian Su-34: Great News, But No Game Changer: Very few people these days in the West seem to understand the difference between tactics and strategy, let alone how a tactical victory may not yield significant strategic gains in warfare. For instance, the United States enjoyed numerous tactical victories in the Vietnam War.
Yet, America still lost the war despite the numerous battlefield victories it enjoyed. Similarly, the Ukrainians have enjoyed many tactical victories in their defensive war against Russia. Sadly, none of these victories have yielded the ultimate strategic victory they are hoping for: the removal of Russia from all Ukrainian territories).
The Incident
A recent example in the Western press about this confusion between tactical gains and strategic victories is that of the news coming primarily from Russian sources, which is of dubious reliability, that an F-16 shot down a Russian Su-34.
According to those reports, a Russian Su-34 was going for a bombing run over contested Ukrainian territory when one of the American-provided F-16s shot it down, killing its crew.
In August of this year, Kyiv announced they had received their first tranche of U.S.-provided F-16s. The F-16 is a fourth-generation warplane that is operated by countless air forces around the world, notably the United States Air Force. Even though this class of bird is older when compared to other platforms, like the F-35 Lightning II or the F-22A Raptor, the F-16 is still a lethal and reliable platform.
Interestingly, while the Russian sources reporting on this story are lamenting the loss of the Su-34, a Soviet-era two-seat fighter bomber, the Ukrainian side is not rejoicing as one might assume this desperate defender might. Unlike the Russians, who can, with relative ease and reliability, replace the downed Su-34, the Ukrainians cannot so easily replace the lost F-16.
Ukrainian sources have assured their followers that there will be more of this to come. And, given the nature of the Ukraine War, the Ukrainian sources are likely correct. Ukraine’s defenders have managed to impose a staggering level of losses on the Russians, in terms of troops, and equipment, like tanks and aircraft. Yet, the Russians persist.
So, the Russians can sustain these losses in a far better way than the Ukrainians.
A Distinction without Much of a Difference
Just look at how Ukraine has struggled even after they were given the blessed main battle tanks by NATO. Despite the presence of an assortment of advanced main battle tanks (MBTs), such as the German-built Leopard-2, the British Challenger-2, or even the American Abrams, the Ukrainians have still barely moved the war in their direction.
The Ukrainians were so bad with the Abrams, that they prematurely discontinued their use in combat. Ukrainians lost the Leopard-2s in combat at an extraordinary and unprecedented rate. The older British Challenger-2 MBTs have fared only slightly better.
Instead, Ukraine has made significant headway with their relatively ancient Tu-64 Soviet-era MBTs and the American-made Bradley Fighting Vehicle. These older and weaker systems are keeping Ukraine in the fight on the ground, but have done little to move the strategic needle in their direction. A similar outcome will be experienced with the F-16s.
For every “win” the Ukrainian Air Force enjoys there are insufficient numbers of F-16s to make a difference. What’s more, the Russians have such a striking presence in the Ukrainian skies that those F-16s will not be long for this world.
So, yes, Kyiv should celebrate. But let’s not overstate this victory. It will do little to change the outcome of the war. What’s more, irrespective of what Western cheerleaders have to say on the matter, the Ukrainian use of F-16s will not fundamentally change battlefield conditions.
Author Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock.
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