In its latest estimate of the conflict, the British Military Intelligence focused on the Ukrainian efforts to maintain the foothold inside Russia, stating that “on January 5, 2025, in Russia’s Kursk oblast, Ukraine launched a limited armored counter-attack against Russian forces.”

“The attack came as Ukraine continues to defend its salient of territory in Kursk against persistent attacks by Russian and North Korean forces,” the British Military Intelligence added. 

Pyongyang has sent approximately 11,000 North Korean troops to fight for Russia. These troops are primarily supporting Russian military operations in the Kursk oblast.

“Despite high casualties, Russia has only been able to make minor advances against Ukrainian-held territory in recent weeks,” the British Military Intelligence stated about Russian progress against the Ukrainian salient in Kursk. 

In the first week of August, the Ukrainian military caught Russia and the world by surprise by thinking outside the box and invading Russia in the Kursk oblast. The bold Ukrainian foray into Russian territory was intended to create a distraction and draw Russian forces from the contact line in Ukraine. 

However, inside Ukraine, the Russian military has kept a high tactical pressure on the Ukrainians. 

“In eastern Ukraine, Russia continued to focus attacks in central Donetsk oblast. Russian forces have largely seized the town of Kurakhove. “Russia began assaults into the town in mid-November 2024,” the British Military Intelligence stated. 

In addition, the Russian forces have advanced toward Pokrovsk and Toretsk. 

Concerning Pokrovsk, the Russian military has been trying to surround and take the city. Russian units have been pushing westward of Pokrovsk, capturing several villages in the process. The Russian vanguard is currently around three miles south of the city. Pokrovsk is an important point in the Ukrainian defensive line because it serves as a logistical hub. Were the city to fall into Russian hands, 

In terms of Toretsk, which is located further to the south, the Russian forces have captured a significant part of the settlement. However, the urban conditions have stalled the Russian advance and have allowed the Ukrainian military to maintain a foothold in Toretsk. 

The Russian military is pushing hard to capture as much territory in the Donbas as possible; the Donbas is the name for an area that includes Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Before the war, the Donbas was the industrial center of Ukraine and was also rich in resources. 

“Central Donetsk oblast continues to be the most volatile area of the frontline in eastern Ukraine,” the British Military Intelligence concluded. 

With the prospect of honest peace negotiations in 2025 more realistic, it seems that both combatants are vying for as much territory, and thus conditional negotiations leverage, as possible. The Ukrainian military continues to fight for its gains inside Russia in the Kursk oblast, while the Russian forces are pushing hard in southeastern Ukraine to complete their control over the Donbas. 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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