Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement on a ceasefire after nearly fifteen months of brutal fighting in the occupied Palestinian territory. If approved by the Israeli cabinet (which is not certain at the time of writing), the deal would mark a watershed moment in the decades-long Israel-Palestine conflict and a critical point of reprieve for innocent people on both sides. However, it is important to note that the ceasefire is merely the starting point of a tumultuous path forward—not the end. How key stakeholders engage in that path will define the direction of the conflict and broader geopolitical dynamics across West Asia.

The region has experienced a tumultuous period since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. Since those attacks, Israel has largely decimated Gaza, invaded Lebanon, and launched attacks on its enemies in Syria, Iran, and Yemen. The Biden administration, alongside fellow mediators Qatar and Egypt, presented multiple iterations of the current ceasefire agreement throughout the last year to end what had become a regional conflict. Nearly 47,000 have died as those talks repeatedly stalled—most of them Palestinian civilians that Israel killed in Gaza during its quest to eliminate Hamas.

That stark reality makes the current agreement all the more bittersweet, given that it largely resembles a proposal outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden and the United Nations Security Council endorsed in May 2024. While U.S. officials heaped blame for the May deal’s collapse on Hamas—alongside multiple collapses in subsequent months—Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right governing coalition members actively and openly tanked negotiations whenever they reached a potential breakthrough. 

Those far-right allies admit as much, leading to last-second confusion around the current agreement in a blatant attempt to prevent a ceasefire once again. Indeed, Israeli officials highlight that last-second Israeli concerns regarding the deal have more to do with coalition politics in Israel—namely, Netanyahu sustaining his power.

Incredibly, not Biden but President-elect Donald Trump reportedly achieved a breakthrough by pressuring Netanyahu to accept May’s terms ahead of his January 20 inauguration. In a novel diplomatic approach, the Biden administration included Trump’s team in negotiations after the November presidential election, leading his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to force the Israeli prime minister’s hand just one week ago. The irony is not lost on those monitoring the conflict, considering Trump’s bona fide pro-Israel credentials during his first term.

Indeed, many believed Trump would give Israel carte blanche to sustain its Gaza presence in an aggressive play to re-work the Middle East’s geopolitical makeup. For this camp, that included potential Israeli annexation of the West Bank and massive strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, which would ultimately require U.S. backing. While Trump is arguably the most pro-Israel president in U.S. history, his personal interests and abrasive diplomatic approach continue to take precedence over the interests of U.S. partners—including Israel. Whether that includes intentional efforts to harm Netanyahu after their personal falling out four years ago remains to be seen.

Those details ultimately make the deal’s specifics crucial as Trump enters the White House. The ceasefire will occur in three stages, with the remaining living hostages exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners occurring during the first two stages. Israel will gradually withdraw from Gaza, initially retaining a ground force along the Philadelphi Corridor with Egypt and the territory’s contested borders with Israel while leaving the Netzarim Corridor bisecting the strip. Negotiations regarding Gaza’s reconstruction will occur across these stages as well.

The deal is imperfect for both Israel and Hamas. Netanyahu and his far-right allies prefer to stay in Gaza indefinitely, chasing a “total victory” slogan that is unattainable and deleterious to Israeli security. The Israeli Far Right’s dreams of annexing Gaza cannot be achieved with a withdrawal either. Leaving the Netzarim Corridor stymies their efforts to ethnically cleanse and settle northern Gaza. Most importantly, Hamas will likely survive if Israel withdraws. The goal of complete obliteration was never realistic, as the group was bound to reappear as a new entity with potentially more extreme beliefs and tactics informed by the current Gaza war.

Hamas, meanwhile, is getting far fewer Palestinian prisoners released than initially hoped. As the deal progresses and a “day after” plan is developed, the group will almost certainly be boxed out of any future governance in the strip, let alone future Palestinian politics, under Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine. It will struggle to reconstitute a serious fighting force, even as Washington assesses it has managed to recruit as many fighters as it has lost in the war. But it will survive.

The same cannot be said for the deal itself. Israel’s far-right is already calling for renewed fighting after the first phase, effectively eschewing the remaining hostages in a bid to continue their expansionist goals. Hamas could also opt to undermine the agreement, moving fighters and regrouping in ways that Israel deems to be a violation of the ceasefire. The dynamics between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon are notable in that the challenges there could replicate in Gaza. However, Hamas’s substantially weaker position suggests it could be more inclined to honor the deal. Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial is critical to this conversation as he needs to retain the prime minister’s office to have any chance of skirting those charges—as the Far Right knows.

The ceasefire’s survival ultimately rests on the shoulders of the guarantors, particularly the United States. Given Trump’s stated desire to expand the Abraham Accords through this ceasefire agreement, Washington could exert pressure on Netanyahu to stay within the deal’s contours. Whether Trump offered Netanyahu carrots—such as future West Bank annexation or support for strikes on Iran’s nuclear program—alongside the sticks applied to the Israeli government to force a ceasefire remains to be seen. As Trump’s incoming national security advisor, Mike Waltz, noted, Washington could even back renewed Israeli operations in Gaza.

Such carrots could include a preferential deal for Israel in a day-after scenario in which their preferred groups run the strip, potentially indefinitely, in what would continue to divide Palestinian politics and delay real negotiations on a future Palestinian state. Israel’s opposition has stated its openness to prop up Netanyahu’s governing coalition if he supports a ceasefire and may do the same if these future scenarios materialize.

Of course, any of these actions would directly prevent Trump from achieving his supposed primary goal—Arab state normalization with Israel through the Abraham Accords. Saudi Arabia is the crown jewel in this strategy, but it will not normalize relations with Israel outside of at least some preferential dealmaking for the Palestinians. That reality suggests Trump could be open to additional pressure on Israel as he again works for the “deal of the century” and a potential Nobel Peace Prize.

That effort could spell the end of the Netanyahu government, as his far-right allies will not keep him in power if they cannot achieve their annexation goals. The embattled prime minister is forced to follow Trump’s lead or risk the consequences—something Biden was never willing to do. Should Trump’s team have a real day-after plan in mind for Gaza, the ceasefire could hold in this context. Until then, the world will continue to hold its collective breath as one of the world’s longest-running conflicts enters a potentially groundbreaking new stage after fifteen months of carnage in Gaza.

Alexander Langlois is a foreign policy analyst and Contributing Fellow at Defense Priorities. He is focused on the geopolitics of the Levant and the broader dynamics of West Asia. Follow him on X:  @langloisajl.

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