5 Things Taiwan Needs to Learn from the Ukraine War
Both China and Taiwan are looking at the Ukraine war trying to learn something from the experiences of Russia and Ukraine. Here are five lessons they should learn.
The war in Ukraine is a shambolic, bloody mess for all involved. It is a conflict defined by fantastical thinking from political leaders of all countries involved and of missed opportunities. The war is one in which the modern armies of the world find themselves battling in the most ancient conditions imaginable. It is a series of contradictions and unknowable, unpredictable events.
On the one hand, the Ukraine war is being fought with futuristic drones and on the other, it is defined by brutal, static trench warfare akin to what was experienced during World War I.
Despite the horrific nature of the conflict, the world’s great militaries have been watching (or even participating in) the war, taking notes, and studying all aspects of the conflict. Everyone is seeking a valuable set of lessons to apply to their own strategic positions and to better prepare for when a major war erupts in their part of the world. One nation, specifically, has done everything in its power to link its struggle with that of Ukraine: the embattled democracy of Taiwan.
Taiwan sees in Ukraine a kindred spirit. A tiny, fledgling democracy torn between an ancient bond of blood and culture, situated next to an autocratic and vicious great power, and struggling to throw off those ancient ties in favor of embracing modernity with the democratic, free West. Or, at least, that’s what both Taiwan and Ukraine tell themselves.
The truth, of course, is murkier than that. And, while it might seem superficially similar, Taiwan’s struggle against neighboring China is quite different from Ukraine’s struggle against nearby Russia.
Still, both China and Taiwan are looking at the Ukraine war trying to learn something from the experiences of Russia and Ukraine. The first lesson I would posit would be for both Taiwan and China to avoid a conflict with each other because both Russia and Ukraine have suffered mightily since they began warring against each other. Yet, there are a handful of key lessons that Taiwan could learn that could make a potential Chinese invasion of its island far less successful than the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been.
Here are the top five lessons from the Ukraine War that must be applied by Taiwan if it is to repel a Chinese invasion of their island.
5. Drone swarms
Both the Ukrainians and Russians have fundamentally changed the nature of warfare with their prolific use of drones in the war. Unmanned systems have upended a century of armor warfare tactics, with Ukrainian drones utterly stymying Russian armor advances throughout the conflict. Of course, the Russians have adapted. But not entirely. Drones are cheap and easy to mass produce. Not only should Taiwan make unmanned aerial vehicles a staple of any defense of its island, but it must also construct unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) as the Chinese will come with a massive naval force when they decide to attack Taiwan.
4. Starlink access is key
When the Russians initiated the war in 2022, one of the first things they attempted to accomplish was to isolate Ukraine electronically from the rest of the world. Under normal circumstances, this would have worked well for Russia. But, thanks to some quick tweeting from Ukraine’s embattled regime, Elon Musk was enticed to send Ukraine countless Starlink terminals so it could evade Russia’s electronic warfare assault upon its national infrastructure.
Because of this access, Ukraine was able to remain connected to the wider world. More importantly, though, Ukraine was able to use Starlink to help their forces stay ahead of the lumbering Russian invasion force during the critical defense of Kyiv in the early part of the war.
With Taiwan being an island, it will be easy for China to cut the island off from the rest of the world electronically. This could prove devastating for Taiwan’s civil society and its willingness and ability to resist a Chinese invasion in the long term.
So, Taipei should purchase large numbers of Starlink terminals today and prepare to use those terminals to keep Taiwan connected to the rest of the world whilst allowing for its forces to coordinate and communicate with each other over large distances, all while China tries to defeat them.
3. Electromagnetic (EM) spectrum jammers
Both Ukraine and Russia are actively using EM spectrum jammers to disrupt enemy communications and critical signals with the Global Positioning System (GPS) in orbit. One expert has dubbed it as “fighting a battle in the invisible realm of electromagnetic waves.” Other innovative electronic warfare (EW) strategies have been to use tactics like spoofing.
From the defenders’ point of view, the key element behind these EM attacks has been to know how to exploit weaknesses in the enemy EM attacks on your forces. By employing these methods in warfare on the offensive side, you can learn how to better defend against them. Taiwan will need to make its island inhospitable to the kinds of signals that invading Chinese forces will rely on.
2. Sea mines
One of the key differences between Ukraine and Taiwan is the geography. Ukraine is a landlocked nation that can be invaded by large armies relatively easily. Taiwan, on the other hand, has a degree of geographical protection because it is an island. Therefore, an invader will need to spend considerable time, manpower, and resources to move a large invasion force to Taiwan. Part of making Taiwan a porcupine will be to layer the sea around the island with large numbers of mines to complicate the advance of Chinese naval units. Ukraine has used land mines to great effect against advancing Russian forces. The same logic should apply to Taiwan.
1. Small arms
Nothing—and I mean nothing—has been more effective against an invader than having an armed populace. Not just by having a handful of people ready to defend their country, but by having every citizen armed (and trained on how to use their firearms). An island of 24 million people where most, if not all, the populace was equipped with reliable firearms (with a network of arms depots scattered strategically throughout the land) would be enough to complicate China’s efforts to pacify the island once they’ve landed troops there.
Yes, machine guns, pistols, shotguns, and the like will be useful. But systems like the Man-Portable Air-Defense System (MANPAD), which was used to great effect by the mujahideen in the Soviet-Afghan War to shoot down helicopters, and the Javelin anti-tank missiles, that have been used by Ukraine’s defenders to stymie Russian armor advances, are excellent examples of what the Taiwanese need to better prepare themselves to repel a Chinese invasion of their land.
Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase wherever books are sold. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.