What You Need to Know: Russian forces are making costly gains in eastern Ukraine, advancing towards the contested town of Chasiv Yar. British Military Intelligence reports that Russian troops have crossed a canal into Chasiv Yar’s boundaries yet struggle to consolidate control in urban areas.

-Moscow’s push comes ahead of worsening weather, aiming to secure ground before Ukrainian defenders gain a winter advantage. The offensive is proving costly; recent estimates show Russia losing up to 1,600 troops daily, along with significant military hardware.

-Over the weekend, Russia reportedly lost 3,200 men and numerous vehicles, highlighting the staggering human and equipment toll for limited territorial gains.

Russia Advances in Chasiv Yar Amid Heavy Losses in Ukraine War

The Russian forces continue to make steady progress in several parts of the contact line in Ukraine.

Moscow is pushing hard to make gains on the ground before the weather conditions worsen and give the Ukrainian defenders an advantage.

Slow Progress

In its latest estimate of the war, the British Military Intelligence assessed that the “Russian forces haves have made gains into the heavily contested town of Chasiv Yar in eastern Ukraine.”

The Russian military has been trying to capture Chasiv Yar for years without much success. However, the latest, months-long offensive against Ukrainian positions is slowly reaping results from the Kremlin.

“They have highly likely crossed the canal in southern Chasiv Yar and approached the town’s boundaries. In the central part of the canal district, it is likely Russian forces have made limited advances west of the canal into the eastern part of Chasiv Yar,” the British Military Intelligence added.

Fighting within an urban setting always favors the defender. And Chasiv Yar is not an exception. The Russian forces will have to lose a lot of men and heavy weapon systems to capture the town. The best way to capture an urban center is to surround or threaten to surround it, thus cutting off reinforcements and resupply.

“However, it is highly likely that the central and northern parts of the canal district remain fiercely contested, with Russian forces unable to consolidate in these areas,” the British Military Intelligence stated.

“From mid-July 2024 until recently, Russian forces had been unable to cross the canal due to extensive defensive measures taken by the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” the British Military Intelligence concluded.

After its surprise foray into Russia in August, the Ukrainian military is now focusing solely on the defensive, trying to prevent the Russian forces from making too many gains along the contact line.

An Average of 1,600 Losses a Day

Meanwhile, the Russian forces continue to take extremely heavy casualties on the ground. Over the weekend, the Russian military, pro-Russian separatists, and mercenaries lost approximately 3,200 men killed, wounded, or captured. That is an average of almost 1,600 men lost a day and it shows the extremely heavy cost Russian troops have to pay for any progress made.

But the Kremlin’s losses aren’t limited to men. Moscow is losing troves of heavy weapon systems every day. For example, over the weekend, the Russian forces lost approximately 195 tactical vehicles and fuel trucks, 129 unmanned aerial systems, 70 artillery pieces and multiple launch rocket systems, 68 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 16 main battle tanks, 7 pieces of special equipment, and 2 air defense systems.

Overall, the Russian forces have lost almost 700,000 troops and tens of thousands of heavy weapon systems in 978 days of fighting. By the current rate, the Kremlin will have suffered nearly 750,000 losses before the year is out.

Although the above figures rest on assessments of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Western intelligence services and militaries have often corroborated Kyiv’s data.

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

Image Credit: Creative Commons and/or Shutterstock.