China is readying to take their democratic neighbor of Taiwan. The only real questions to be asked are: when and how?
Here’s the real kicker, though. The United States is unlikely to do much of anything to stop the Chinese when they do go forward with their nefarious plans.
That’s because the United States and its allies simply lack the political will and the defense industrial base to support the kind of herculean effort that will be needed to defeat a Chinese blockade and/or invasion of the embattled island democracy of Taiwan.
America is already overcommitted to supporting Ukraine in its gradually losing fight against Russia, and to helping Israel in its interminable conflicts against aggressive Islamist actors in the Middle East, notably the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States simply cannot be everywhere all at once.
And the US defense industrial base is unable to meet current demands, let alone the far higher demands that will come from a Pacific war. When President-Elect Donald J. Trump officially enters the White House on January 20, he will find that his predecessor has left the cupboards bare and lit geopolitical fires everywhere for the Trump team to douse.
Is Taiwan Even Serious About Their Self-Defense?
There’s another, more disconcerting point that should be made about Taiwan’s defense against China: specifically, about the Taiwanese themselves. There are many living on that great island nation who will gladly lay their lives down to defend their freedoms in the face of a Chinese assault on Taiwan.
Ultimately, substantive numbers of both Taiwanese and Chinese view themselves as siblings from the same culture. Both China and Taiwan’s governments face the problems that there is a clear reticence on the part of their people to fight each other, given these cultural linkages.
However, in China’s authoritarian system, compliance is the name of the game whereas in Taiwan, a free society, compliance is optional.
So the probability that such people are, in any way, numerous enough to stop a determined and robustly supported Chinese military operation against Taiwan is low. That is especially true if the United States and its allies refuse to come to the stricken island’s aid, or if the US and its allies come to the aid of Taiwan in a half-hearted way.
Indeed, recent reports from Taiwan suggest that there is a bit of a crisis in the island’s self-defense preparations.
For starters, Taiwan's strategy is questionable. The island's military appears to be equipping itself for a conventional conflict against the much larger Chinese military, when it should instead be preparing to wage the mother of all insurgencies against the invading Chinese military. Then there’s the fact that the military of Taiwan is relatively small and might not be prepared for the kind of intense fight that is coming their way.
What’s more, recent reports suggest that Taipei is looking to recruit foreign fighters in a sort of foreign legion tasked with defending the island for when the Chinese come. Oh, and don’t forget about the presence of US Special Forces that have been deployed to Taiwan by the Biden administration.
If the Taiwanese really are united in their opposition to being absorbed by the Chinese mainland—as, indeed, they have given every intention of being—then why would they need foreigners in their ranks at all?
A Geopolitical Blow for the US in the Indo-Pacific
A big problem exists for the United States in that, from a geostrategic point of view, China conquering Taiwan would ensure that the United States lost its primacy in the vital Indo-Pacific region. While the region might not be outrightly denied to the Americans, the United States would be slowly but surely pushed away from a region that has been key for trade by a rising Chinese hegemon.
And that Chinese regional hegemon would ultimately evolve into a real challenger for America’s dominant global position.
In fact, according to the strategists in China that President Xi Jinping most respects, the notion of replacing the United States as the global superpower by 2049, the hundredth-year anniversary of Mao Zedong’s founding of the People’s Republic of China, is Xi’s raison d’etre.
The Balance of Power in Taiwan Strait Favors China
Already the balance of military power in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea significantly disfavors the United States. Militarily and economically, the Chinese are already prepared to make a serious attempt against Taiwan, and the Americans would be hard-pressed to stop them.
If the Americans did attempt to roll back a Chinese invasion or even a blockade militarily, given that disparity in regional power favoring Beijing, the Americans would likely be unable to defeat the Chinese. Similarly, the Chinese would probably be unable to decisively defeat the Americans in a direct confrontation. But if neither China nor the United States could decisively defeat one another militarily, the prospects of nuclear confrontation become very real.
Alas, in all these possibilities, the fate of Taiwan would not be very good for those who seek freedom.
President-Elect Donald J. Trump understands what’s really at stake with China, which is why his team has already made conciliatory statements with Beijing—notably his unprecedented invitation of China's Xi Jinping to his presidential inauguration on January 20 (an invitation that Xi has snubbed).
Both leaders know that Taiwan’s fate is sealed. Trump does not seek nuclear war, and will ultimately let the Chinese take the island if that is why Xi decides to do in favor of some semblance of more prosperous relations with Beijing.
Losing Taiwan would not be the end of American power. It would, however, be a severe blow to the superpower.
A Multipolar World
Ultimately, the United States is not living in the unipolar era anymore. We are in a tripolar world system where the United States is in relative decline. Such systems are inherently unstable. Everywhere Trump looks, he will see US power in retreat globally, all while the US economy teeters on the precipice of disaster. Indeed, restoring the US economy will likely consume his first two years in office far more than any foreign matter.
Trump’s entire foreign policy in his first two years will be about stopping the bleeding. In that context, then, it becomes evident why the incoming president is not joking about absorbing Greenland and the Panama Canal Zone (and possibly Canada) into America’s union.
It’s all about hemispheric defense. Hemispheric defense is a key feature of an America on the backfoot as the world order it once led gives way to an inherently unstable tripolar system of competing, near-peer powers, who are all interested in asserting their power and making their mark upon a world made anew by classical geopolitical competition.
Waging World War III for Taiwan—or any small nation, for that matter—would not be in keeping with the predilections and preferences of the incoming US president. Further, it could ensure the defeat of the US, taking Uncle Sam out of this new great global game altogether.
It will be up to Taiwan and its regional partners to ensure their sovereignty—and thus far, Taiwan is not serious enough about their own independence. Hence, the Americans will not be coming when the Chinese attack.
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
