Donald Trump appears poised to make one of the most damaging moves yet of his presidency: to pull out of the multilateral agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), that severely restricts Iran’s nuclear program and closes all pathways to a possible Iranian nuclear weapon.  Iran is adhering—as inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency have repeatedly certified—to its obligations under the agreement.  Despite this record, Trump’s administration already has been violating U.S. obligations, by withholding licenses for commercial transactions permitted under the accord and by actively discouraging other countries from conducting normal commerce with Iran.  Trump has been chomping at the bit to withdraw from the JCPOA altogether.  He reportedly has been restrained from doing so only by the strong urging of senior subordinates who understand that such a step would be contrary to U.S. interests and to the interests of nuclear nonproliferation.

With Trump’s dismissal of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, some of the most significant restraints on Trump’s impulses are gone.  The replacements, Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, have been just as viscerally opposed to the JCPOA as Trump and can be expected to encourage, rather than restrain, his destructive impulses.

Nothing good can come out of a U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA.  The very best scenario one could hope for, in which the other six parties to the agreement keep some version of it going without U.S. participation, would mean isolation of the United States rather than Iran and additional divisions and acrimony between the United States and its allies.  Other scenarios, in which the JCPOA collapses—as suggested by some statements from Iranian officials that if the U.S. pulls out, so will Iran—are worse.  This would mean the end of all the special restrictions that the JCPOA placed on Iran’s nuclear program.  It would mean Iran could reopen shut-down facilities, enrich as much uranium as it wanted to as high a level as it wanted, and get back to where it was before the JCPOA went into effect, which was within striking distance of being able to build a nuclear weapon.  And just as was the case before the negotiations that led to the JCPOA got under way, Iran’s likely response to more and more pressure from the United States would be to spin more and more enrichment centrifuges.

While all this was happening, the absence of the unprecedently intrusive international inspections that the JCPOA provided for would mean we would be put back in the dark with regard to exactly what Iran was doing with its nuclear program.  The Trump administration would have a new nuclear crisis, totally of its own making, at the very time that efforts to deal with the problem of North Korea’s nuclear weapons enter a critical period.

Trump’s animus toward the JCPOA, like much of the opposition to it, is rooted in political impulses that have nothing to do with the terms of the agreement.  For Trump the overriding motivation, as with much of the rest of his presidency, has been to undo whatever his predecessor did.  With Bolton, there is the further inclination to oppose diplomacy generally and to look to military force as the solution to any foreign problem.

In times such as these, we should look for guidance to those whose dedication to U.S. national security interests is unquestioned, whose detachment from current political fights is sufficient for their advice to be guided by long-term concern for those interests, and whose experience gives them deep understanding of the issues and problems involved.  Such people are to be found in a group of more than a hundred American national security leaders who, calling themselves a National Coalition to Prevent an Iranian Nuclear Weapon, issued today a statement supporting adherence to the JCPOA.  The signatories include several dozen retired generals and admirals from the U.S. military.  They include 31 former ambassadors, including five former U.S. ambassadors to Israel.  They include former members of Congress, both Republican and Democrat, including former chairs of the foreign relations and armed services committees.  They include former senior executive branch officials as well as those who have studied intensively from the outside the problems of relations with Iran and of nuclear proliferation.  These leaders would disagree among themselves on many issues, but they agree on the wisdom of maintaining the landmark agreement that is the JCPOA.

Here is their statement:

Keep the Iran Deal — 10 Good Reasons Why

Statement of the National Coalition to Prevent an Iranian Nuclear Weapon

March 2018

President Trump should maintain the U.S. commitment to the Iran nuclear deal. Doing so will bring substantial benefits and strengthen America’s hand in dealing with North Korea, as well as Iran, and help maintain the reliability of America’s word and influence as a world leader. Ditching it would serve no national security purpose.

Maintaining Rigorous Implementation of the Agreement Enhances U.S. and Regional Security

1. Iran will be prohibited from exceeding severe limits on its nuclear program under continuing, unprecedented international monitoring, preventing it from moving toward a nuclear weapon for the duration of the agreement. If there is no follow-on agreement that maintains constraints on Iran and if Iran should move toward acquiring a nuclear weapon, nothing prevents the U.S. from taking action.

2. Direct U.S.-Iran communications will be better maintained for crisis management if the nuclear agreement remains in place. The potential for military confrontation, inadvertent accidents and consequent misjudgments in Syria and the Gulf may require the contingency for emergency contacts made possible through the Joint Commission of the nuclear agreement.

3. North Korea could not claim that the U.S. abrogates agreements without cause and would be more likely to negotiate an end to its nuclear program. Efforts to limit nuclear proliferation would be strengthened.

4. Other states in the region would have significantly reduced motivation to develop nuclear weapons if Iran’s program remains under intense scrutiny and restrictions.

The Agreement Enhances U.S. Stature and Leadership

5. U.S. relations with major European allies, who all oppose U.S. withdrawal, would be preserved for advancing U.S. national security interests beyond the nuclear deal.

6. The U.S. will build credibility and retain influence with its negotiating partners to ensure strict implementation with the agreement, be able to lead efforts to strengthen it, or garner strong support for imposing additional sanctions if necessary. Should U.S. efforts with allies fail to reach understandings on remaining in the agreement, the Western Alliance would face significant additional strain.

7. Iran will be denied the opportunity to blame the U.S. should it renew its nuclear program in response to a U.S. withdrawal. Russia and China will be denied the opportunity to claim they are true guardians of international order.

Maintaining the Agreement Provides Opportunities to Decrease Tensions in the Region

8. U.S. political and diplomatic influence would not be eroded, improving the U.S.’s ability to advance the resolution of regional conflicts. There are no military solutions to the conflicts in the Middle East. The U.S. should not cede to Russia, Iran, or others, control over political settlements in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.

9. Iranian hardliners who claim the U.S. can never be trusted would be proven wrong and their influence weakened.

10. Russia and China would have greater difficulty moving closer to Iran politically, economically, and militarily which could lead to increased transfers of conventional weapons and a Russia-Iran strategic alliance.

Ambassador (ret.) Morton Abramowitz, Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research; Ambassador to Thailand and Turkey

Graham Allison, Assistant Secretary of Defense

Ambassador (ret.) Brooke D. Anderson, Alternate Representative for Special Political Affairs at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations; Chief of Staff and Counselor of the National Security Council

Brigadier General (ret.) Ricardo Aponte, U.S. Air Force and Director of Innovation and Experimentation, U.S. Southern Command

Vice Admiral (ret.) Donald Arthur, U.S. Navy and Surgeon General, U.S. Navy

Major General (ret.) Donna Barbisch, U.S. Army and Director, Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Defense Program Integration

Brigadier General (ret.) Roosevelt Barfield, U.S. Army and Deputy Director of Operations, U.S. Africa Command

Rear Admiral (ret.) Jamie Barnett, U.S. Navy and Deputy Commander, Navy Expeditionary Combat Command

Howard Berman, U.S. House of Representatives and Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs

Ambassador (ret.) Nicholas Burns, Under Secretary of State and Ambassador to NATO and Greece

Jeff Bingaman, U.S. Senate

Brigadier General (ret.) Donald C. Bolduc, U.S. Army and Commanding General, Special Operations Command-Africa

David L. Boren, U.S. Senator and Governor of Oklahoma

General (ret.) Chuck Boyd, U.S. Air Force and Deputy Commander in Chief, U.S. European Command

Major General (ret.) David P. Burford, U.S. Army and Deputy Commander for Mobilization and Reserve Affairs, U.S. Special Operations Command

Brigadier General (ret.) Jeffrey B. Cashman, U.S. Air Force and Director, Manpower, Personnel and Services, Air National Guard

Brigadier General (ret.) Stephen A. Cheney, U.S. Marine Corps and Inspector General, U.S. Marine Corps

Joseph Cirincione, President of the Ploughshares Fund

Lieutenant General (ret.) James Clapper, U.S. Air Force and Director of National Intelligence

Brigadier General (ret.) Julia J. Cleckley, U.S. Army and Special Assistant to the Director of the Army National Guard

Ambassador (ret.) James F. Collins, Ambassador at Large for the New Independent States and to the Russian Federation

Major General (ret.) Peter Cooke, U.S. Army and Commanding General, 96th Regional Support Command

Thomas Countryman, Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation

Ambassador (ret.) Chester A. Crocker, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs

Ambassador (ret.) Ryan Crocker, Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Kuwait, and Lebanon

Ambassador (ret.) Walter Culter, Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and Congo-Zaire

Ambassador (ret.) James B. Cunningham, Ambassador to the United Nations, Israel, and Afghanistan

John Danforth, U.S. Senate and Ambassador to the United Nations

Tom Daschle, U.S. Senate and Senate Majority Leader

Suzanne DiMaggio, Senior Fellow and Director of the Iran Initiative at New America

Ambassador (ret.) James Dobbins, U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan

David Dreier, U.S. House of Representatives and Chairman of the House Committee on Rules

Major General (ret.) Mari K. Eder, U.S. Army and Commanding General, 76th Operational Reserve Command

Robert Einhorn, Assistant Secretary for Nonproliferation and the Secretary of State’s Special Advisor for Nonproliferation and Arms Control

Admiral (ret.) William J. Fallon, U.S. Navy and Commander, U.S. Central Command

Brigadier General (ret.) Robert J. Felderman, U.S. Army and Deputy Director Plans, Policy and Strategy, U.S. Northern Command

Ambassador (ret.) Robert Gallucci, Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs and Ambassador at Large

Lieutenant General (ret.) Walter Gaskin, U.S. Marine Corps and Deputy Chairman, NATO Military Committee

Leslie Gelb, Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs and Director of Policy Planning and Arms Control at the Department of Defense

Rear Admiral (ret.) F. Stephen Glass, JAGC, U.S. Navy and Senior Judge Advocate, Naval Reserve

Ambassador (ret.) James Goodby, Ambassador to Finland and Deputy Chief of the U.S.delegation to the START talks

Vice Admiral (ret.) Kevin P. Green, U.S. Navy and Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Plans, Policy and Operations)

Lee H. Hamilton, U.S. House of Representatives, Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, and Vice Chair of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States

Ambassador (ret.) William C. Harrop, Ambassador to Israel and Inspector General, U.S. Department of State

Gary Hart, U.S. Senate and U.S. Special Envoy to Northern Ireland

Brigadier General (ret.) Don Harvel, U.S. Air Force and Air National Guard Advisor to the Commander of the Air Force Special Operations Command

General (ret.) Michael Hayden, U.S. Air Force and Director of the National Security Agency and Director of the Central Intelligence Agency

Stephen B. Heintz, President of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund

Ambassador (ret.) Carla A. Hills, U.S. Trade Representative

James Hoge, Former Editor of Foreign Affairs Magazine

Ambassador (ret.) Laura S. H. Holgate, U.S. Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency and United Nations; and Special Assistant to the President for Weapons of Mass Destruction, Terrorism, and Threat Reduction of the National Security Council

Major General (ret.) Sanford E. Holman, U.S. Army and Commanding General, 200th Military Police Command

Rear Admiral (ret.) John D. Hutson, JAGC, U.S. Navy and Judge Advocate General, U.S. Navy

Brigadier General (ret.) David R. Irvine, U.S. Army and Deputy Commander, 96th Regional Support Command

Ambassador (ret.) James Jeffrey, Deputy National Security Adviser and Ambassador to Albania, Turkey, and Iraq

J. Bennett Johnston, U.S. Senate and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources

Nancy Landon Kassebaum, U.S. Senate

Lieutenant General (ret.) Frank Kearney, U.S. Army and Deputy Director for Strategic Operational Planning, National Counterterrorism Center

Lieutenant General (ret.) Claudia Kennedy, U.S. Army and Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, U.S. Army

Ambassador (ret.) Patrick F. Kennedy, Under Secretary of State for Management

Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director, Arms Control Association

Ambassador (ret.) Jimmy Kolker, Ambassador to Uganda and Burkina Faso

Ambassador (ret.) Daniel Kurtzer, Ambassador to Israel and Egypt

Major General (ret.) Dennis Laich, U.S. Army and Commander, 94th Regional Readiness Command

Ellen Laipson, Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council and President Emeritus of the Stimson Center

Major General (ret.) Steven J. Lepper, U.S. Air Force and Deputy Judge Advocate General, U.S. Air Force

Carl Levin, U.S. Senate and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Armed Services

Ambassador (ret.) John Limbert, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran

Ambassador (ret.) William H. Luers, Ambassador to Czechoslovakia and Venezuela

Richard G. Lugar, U.S. Senate and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations

Ambassador (ret.) Princeton Lyman, Ambassador to Nigeria and South Africa, and Assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations

Major General (ret.) Randy Manner, U.S. Army and Deputy Commanding General, 3rd U.S. Army, ARCENT, Kuwait

Ambassador (ret.) Edward Marks, Former Deputy Coordinator of the Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism at the Department of State and Ambassador to Cape Verde and Guinea-Bissau

Brigadier General (ret.) Carlos E. Martinez, U.S. Air Force and Mobilization Assistant to the Deputy Chief of Staff for Warfighting Integration

Jessica T. Mathews, Director of the Office of Global Issues of the National Security Council

Lieutenant General (ret.) John W. Morgan, III, U.S. Army and Commander, Allied Land Force Command-Heidelberg (NATO)

Ambassador (ret.) Richard W. Murphy, Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs

Vali Nasr, U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan and Dean of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

Richard Nephew, Deputy Coordinator for Sanctions Policy at the Department of State and Director for Iran of the National Security Council

Ambassador (ret.) Thomas Niles, Ambassador to the European Union, Greece, and Canada

Sam Nunn, U.S. Senate and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Armed Services

Joseph Nye, Assistant Secretary of Defense and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council

Paul O’Neill, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury

Rear Admiral (ret.) David R. Oliver, Jr., U.S. Navy and Principal Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics

Ambassador (ret.) Rick Olsen, U.S. Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan

Admiral (ret.) Eric Olson, U.S. Navy and Commander of Special Operations Forces

William Perry, U.S. Secretary of Defense

Ambassador (ret.) Thomas Pickering, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs and Ambassador to Israel, Russia, India, El Salvador, Nigeria, Jordan, and the United Nations

Paul R. Pillar, National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia

Ambassador (ret.) Nicholas Platt, Ambassador to Pakistan, the Philippines, and Zambia

Major General (ret.) Gale S. Pollock, CRNA, FACHE, FAAN, U.S. Army and Acting Surgeon General, Army Medical Command

Don Riegle, U.S. Senate and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs

Chuck Robb, U.S. Senate and Governor of Virginia

Rear Admiral (ret.) Harold Robinson, U.S. Navy and Deputy Chief of Chaplains

Brigadier General (ret.) Ronald F. Rokosz, U.S. Army and Deputy, Operations Directorate, the Army Staff

Ambassador (ret.) J. Stapleton Roy, Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research and Ambassador to China, Indonesia, and Singapore

Brigadier General (ret.) John M. Schuster, U.S. Army and Deputy Commanding General, 88th Regional Support Command

General (ret.) Brent Scowcroft, U.S. Air Force and U.S. National Security Advisor

Rear Admiral (ret.) Joe Sestak, U.S. Navy and Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Warfare Requirements and Programs

Gary Sick, Director for Iran and the Persian Gulf of the National Security Council

Jim Slattery, U.S. House of Representatives

Brigadier General (ret.) Paul G. Smith, U.S. Army and Commander, Massachusetts Army National Guard

Rear Admiral (ret.) Michael Smith, U.S. Navy and President, American College of National Security Leaders

Ambassador (ret.) Craig Stapleton, Ambassador to France and the Czech Republic

Mark Udall, U.S. Senate

Ambassador (ret.) Nicholas A. Veliotes, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs and Ambassador to Egypt and Jordan

Ambassador (ret.) Edward S. Walker, Jr., Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and Ambassador to Israel, Egypt, and the UAE

James Walsh, Research Associate at MIT’s Security Studies Program

Brigadier General (ret.) Marianne Watson, U.S. Army and Director of Manpower and Personnel, National Guard Bureau

Colonel (ret.) Lawrence Wilkerson, U.S. Army and Chief of Staff to the Secretary of State

Lieutenant General (ret.) Willie Williams, U.S. Marine Corps and Director Marine Corps Staff

General (ret.) Johnnie Wilson, U.S. Army and Commanding General, U.S. Army Materiel Command

Timothy E. Wirth, U.S. Senate

Ambassador (ret.) Frank Wisner, Ambassador to India, Egypt, the Philippines, and Zambia; and Under Secretary of State for International Security Affairs

Major General (ret.) Margaret C. Wilmoth, PhD, MSS, RN, FAAN, U.S. Army and Deputy Surgeon General for Mobilization and Army Reserve Affairs

Brigadier General (ret.) Daniel P. Woodward, U.S. Air Force and Director, Air Force Regional Affairs

Major General (ret.) Margaret Woodward, U.S. Air Force and Commander, 17th Air Force

Brigadier General (ret.) Stephen N. Xenakis, M.D., U.S. Army and Commanding General, Dwight David Eisenhower Army Medical Center

* The signers of this statement were either former senior officials of the U.S. government or prominent national security leaders who have not held senior government positions. The positions listed after the names of the former government officials are senior posts held while in office. The positions listed after the names of those who were not from the government are listed with their current position.

Image: U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry speaks during a Reuters Newsmaker event on the nuclear agreement with Iran, in New York August 11, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid