Blog Buzz: The Backstory Part II

October 15, 2008 Topic: Security Region: Americas

Blog Buzz: The Backstory Part II

Prisoners in Iraq (October 15)Matt Yglesias notes that Iceland's economy is

Abe Greenwald, writing at Contentions, is distressed by Iran. He cites an op-ed in the Australian, which argues that Iran is "a threat bigger than Wall Street." The op-ed, in turn, is based on a forthcoming bipartisan report on Iran that states that sanctions cannot work because it is impossible to get the full cooperation of the EU, Russia, China and the rest of the Gulf. As Greenwald summarizes the situation, "Europe finds itself unable to stick to the sanctions they've signed on for. Germany can't resist doing oil business with Tehran and exports from all over the EU to Iran have gone up since sanctions were ‘imposed.' Russia is thrilled about the prospect of a U.S. attack on Iran."

 

Iran ‘Process' Broken (September 29)

Over the weekend, Daniel Drezner pointed out that any discussion of China was conspicuously absent from Friday's Presidential debate. Drezner thinks this is a mistaken omission because, "China is clearly the one country that can challenge the United States as a peer competitor in the next decade. There are economic, regional, security, human rights, and global governance issues where Washington and Beijing don't see eye to eye."

Glenn Reynolds notices something encouraging in Pakistan: Pakistani tribes are fighting back against Taliban extremists. He quotes from the Guardian, which reports that the "resistance has parallels with the ‘Sunni awakening' in Iraq, where tribesmen took on al-Qaeda militants in Anbar province and elsewhere." Reynolds' verdict: "I think we should try to encourage this."

But Gordon Chang, writing at Contentions, is less encouraged about progress with Iran. He laments the newest UN Security Council resolution calling for Iran to comply "fully and without delay" with prior resolutions related to its nuclear program. Chang thinks that the process of working through the P5 plus 1 is basically hopeless. He asks, "How can we believe the ‘process' still exists when it cannot result in any meaningful measure, even after the International Atomic Energy Agency said this month that Iran was blocking international inspections?" His conclusion is that it is time for the United States to use "economic, political, and diplomatic leverage to persuade the Chinese-and maybe even the Russians-to take meaningful steps to stop Iran."

 

Ahmadinejad at the UN (September 25)

Daniel Halper at Contentions is unhappy with the reception given to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the United Nations. The problem is that, in short, he was greeted quite warmly after giving a speech "redolent of classical European anti-Semitism" that accused "Zionists of controlling the banks" according to Benny Avni of the New York Sun. Halper contrasts the reaction to Ahmadinejad's speech (he hugged the Assembly president) with the rather tepid reaction to George Bush. He then wonders if this should make Americans less concerned about our ‘standing in the world.' As he puts it, "If other nations want the respect of America, it seems to me, they must be able to stand-up and walk out when somebody like Iran's current President takes the floor."

Matt Yglesias is worried about the behavior of North Korea, especially if Kim Jong-Il is too sick to run the country right now. He writes, "Just try to imagine what a weak grasp of the outside world some high-ranking North Korean general is likely to have. It makes the situation dangerous [and] unpredictable."

 

New Thinking on Israel (September 24)

Shmuel Rosner of Contentions highlights a new Israeli study that rethinks the "two state-solution." Written by Giora Eiland, former head of the Israeli National Security Council, it argues for something closer to a four-state solution, with Egypt and Jordan on board. But as Rosner puts it, "Eiland wasn't born yesterday: he knows that Egypt and Jordan aren't likely to get on board."

In other Israel-related news, Jeffrey Golberg of The Atlantic cites a report that Russia has forced the collapse of sanctions on Iran. The title of Goldberg's post says it all: "News That Makes an Israeli Strike on Iran More Likely."

 

North Korea Enriching? (September 23)

Marty Peretz, writing in The Spine, thinks John Bolton was right about North Korea. Why? Because, according to the Times, the regime confirms that "it has begun to reassemble a nuclear complex that can produce weapons-grade plutonium." Adds Peretz, "it cares not a fig whether it is removed from the United States' terrorism blacklist."

At Contentions, Max Boot is concerned that "the armed forces are not moving fast enough to mobilize speakers of strategically-important languages to help prevail on numerous battlefields of the War on Terror." He has a solution: "Recruit more foreigners into the armed forces."

On Tapped, Robert Farley wonders why the Russian Navy has sent warships for exercises off of Venezuela. He asks, "what's the point of antagonizing the United States in Latin America, when the United States can antagonize Russia in the Caucasus to much greater effect?" Matt Yglesias agrees with Farley's assessment, adding "Russia basically got what it wanted out of the war with Georgia. But it did harm its relationship with the United States and to some extent with Europe. The smart play would have been to consolidate gains in the Caucuses by making nice with the West…"

 

Iraq, Iran and Russia (September 22)

Instapundit notices that Dexter Filkins has written in the Times about "how much Iraq has improved" in the last two years.

Shmuel Rosner at Contentions is discouraged by an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal that declares that a "nuclear Iran is unacceptable." Rosner comments, "Since many leaders in many countries agree, in principle, that a nuclear Iran is not a desirable situation, the assertions this article makes are far from controversial." But, he adds, the key question is how to craft "effective" policies to stop Iran; that is "We need not a policy aimed at stopping Iran, but one that will actually stop Iran."

And Gordon Chang, also writing at Contentions, thinks that Russia has "backed itself into a corner" by recognizing the independence of South Ossetia. For now all of Ossetia is agitating for a referendum on statehood and independence. As Chang puts it, "What could the Kremlin possibly say when [South Ossetian leader] Kokoity asks for a statehood referendum of all Ossetians?"

 

New Leadership in Israel (September 19)

David Hazony at Contentions comments on the likelihood that Tzipi Livni will most likely become Prime Minister of Israel. She has relatively little experience for an Israeli politician; her ascension, according to Hazony, most likely has to do with her "personal charisma and her personal connection to Ariel Sharon in the last years of his career."

Meanwhile, some bloggers on the Right are exercised by a recent column in the New York Post by Amir Tahiri. Tahiri reported that Senator Obama tried in private to persuade Iraqi leaders to delay an agreement on the draw-down of US troops until after the election. Scott Johnson of Powerline laments that the story has not gotten more attention in the mainstream media.

 

Military Unreadiness (September 18)

Max Boot, writing at Contentions, points out that while some pundits worry about the state of the U.S. armed forces in light of the ongoing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, it is in fact the UK's army that is in a bad way. Boot cites a Daily Telegraph article that reports that funding for the British armed forces is so low as to be "in crisis." He worries that as the Brits shy away from funding their military, it will redound negatively for the United States: "If the UK doesn't have the resources to help us, then, Heaven help us, ‘unilateralism' may become a reality-not just a partisan slur."

 

Nuclear Terrorism (September 17)

Abe Greenwald at Contentions cites an AP story that quotes CIA chief Michael Hayden saying, "There is no greater national security threat facing the United States than al Qaeda and its associates." That is, the real question is not the intent to launch a nuclear attack but the access to the technology. The intent is there. So because a nuclear attack would require extensive and highly technical planning, Greenwald argues, "it's as critical that the U.S. goes after technologically advanced potential al Qaeda collaborators as it for us to take down al Qaeda itself."

And John McCormack of the Weekly Standard's Blog points out that General Petraeus officially relinquished his command of Iraq on Tuesday. General Ray Odierno takes over.

 

Blowback for Russia? (September 16)

Michael Totten writes at Contentions that Moscow's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is causing a new problem: Minorities within Russia are now starting to push harder for independence from Russia. Says Totten, "The Soviet Union was really an empire squared. Moscow lost pieces of its outer empire in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus, but many more pieces of the rump empire, or federation, might yet still break off or at least severely bleed Russia internally."

Kathryn Jean Lopez notes that Ukraine's governing coalition has collapsed.