The Cost of War (September 4)

The United States is sending a billion dollars in aid to Georgia.  On the other side of the ledger, Instapundit points out a report that says "as much as $25 billion in foreign capital may have left Russia since the Georgia conflict started."

Following up on Dexter Filkins' interview with Jeffrey Goldberg (mentioned below), Peter Wehner at Contentions takes issue with one small part of Filkins' response.  Filkins told Goldberg that he doesn't think Iraq is a democracy because "A democracy has many things: elections, compromise between groups, an atmosphere safe enough to discuss the issues of the day…" Iraq, according to Filkins, is not there yet.  But Wehner thinks that while Filkins is right about what constitutes a democracy, he also thinks "Iraq actually has those things." He does concede, however, that they are "these achievements, while heartening and even unprecedented, are still fragile."

 

More Anbar Reaction (September 3)

In response to Dexter Filkins' article in the Times yesterday about the handover of Anbar, Jeffrey Goldberg interviewed him (via email).  Filkins told Goldberg, among other things, "The progress here is remarkable. I came back to Iraq after being away for nearly two years, and honestly, parts of it are difficult for me to recognize."

And Eric Posner (now blogging at the Volokh Conspiracy) has compiled a list of predictions about the surge, and the Iraq War, that didn't exactly pan out.

Given these successes, Abe Greenwald is happy about Iraqi politics but no so much about America's: "One of the most shameful aspects of Barack Obama's campaign has been his refusal to acknowledge the full scope of our troops' accomplishments in Iraq. The war's turnaround should be recognized by all as an example of what American perseverance can achieve."

 

Success in Iraq (September 2)

Jeffrey Goldberg points out a huge success in Iraq, that hasn't gotten much notice at all now that we are in high politics season: "Anbar province is now under the control of the Iraqi Army." 

Also in substantive news, Japan's Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda announced his resignation yesterday.  Gordon Chang of Contentions thinks that the LDP (Fukuda's Party) will pick Taro Aso, the current secretary-general and a much more "charismatic" leader.  If he is picked, there will be foreign-policy implications: "For instance, he will not ignore the plight of the Japanese abducted by North Korean agents, thereby complicating President Bush's efforts to settle the nuclear crisis with Pyongyang.  Moreover, he is also bound to upset Beijing…."

And also on Contentions, Noah Pollak disagrees with an idea Jeffrey Goldberg aired over the weekend.  The issue is whether or not President Bush has been "bad for Israel," and whether McCain will too.  The basis of the argument in favor is that the Iraq War strengthened Iran both by removing the threat they faced from Iraq and by compromising America's ability to credibly threaten military engagement, and that Bush's refusal to engage Syria has pushed them further toward Iran and away from Israel.  Pollak is dismissive.  For instance, he argues that the notion that "before the invasion in 2003, Iran and Iraq held each other in something akin to suspended animation, frozen in a historic standoff, is silly. For Iran's purposes, Iraq had been neutered by the Gulf War in 1991…"

 

Iraq, North Korea, and More (August 29)

Yglesis is incredulous that McCain "wants us to believe that Iraq is a ‘peaceful and stable country'" because more than seventy people have died in suicide bombings this month alone. He retorts, "That countries in which dozens of people are killed in suicide bombings on a weekly basis doesn't qualify as ‘peaceful' seems obvious."

But he's heartened by China's refusal to overtly support Russia's military forays. Contrary to the assumption that autocracies always go along with each other, Yglesias argues that in fact they rarely make lasting and meaningful alliances. As he puts it, "States that are internally governed by stable rule-bound liberal institutions can forge enduring institutional ties, but states that aren't like that find it difficult to move beyond one-off bargains."

In other news from the non-democratic world, Gordon Chang noticed North Korea's recent announcement that it is no longer disabling its Yongbon reactor, and is in fact considering restoring it to its original state. Chang notes that doing so "would mean abandoning the series of agreements it has made at the Beijing-sponsored six-party talks" and wonders now the regime can get away with it. He thinks it boils down "to the Bush administration's belief-one might call it faith-that large authoritarian states share our goals and will help us solve the problems of the world."

 

Conventional Foreign Policy (August 28)

Gordon Chang at Contentions notices more belligerent language from Moscow. The newest verbal target is Moldova, which was told by Valeri Kuzmin, Moscow's ambassador to that country, to avoid a repeat of the "bloody and catastrophic trend of events" in the separatist Trans-Dniester region. And Medvedev called what happened in Georgia "a serious warning, a warning to all." Chang wonders what the White House will do, asking, "Mr. Bush, you have just heard the recent words from President Medvedev and Ambassador Kuzmin. What will you do in response? The West may still be waiting for you. The Russians are not."

And since a little foreign policy made it into the Democratic Convention last night, a little discussion of it took place online too. Here's Ramesh Ponnuru's characterization of it in The Corner: "Both Biden and Kerry seem to think that we're in a position to bring troops back from Iraq without the place falling apart because of . . . Obama's foresight. I haven't heard the word ‘surge' tonight. Ponnuru's post is entitled "Chutzpah."

In other war related news, Yglesias is unhappy about John McCain attacking Obama (in a TV ad) for having said that Iran was a ‘tiny' threat. Yglesias cites Obama's original comment-"I mean, think about it: Iran, Cuba, Venezuela-these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union"-and asks, "which aspect of it is wrong? Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela are all much smaller than the Soviet Union. None of them threaten us in the way the Soviet Union did." He adds in a later post that US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker said in a May interview that, "The Soviet Union was a formidable force at its height… Iran simply does not carry anything remotely like that weight, not internationally, not even regionally."

 

Realism and Morality (August 27)

Powerline's Hinderaker links to independent journalist Michael Totten's reporting from Georgia.  Totten claims that Russia's invasion force moved prior to Saakashvili sending the additional troops into South Ossetia that allegedly started the war.  Hinderaker takes away that "the bottom line, to oversimplify greatly, is that the Russians started it."

Hinderaker highlights the energy angle: Russia intended "to fire a shot across the bow of the petroleum-producing countries to Georgia's east."  While he does not see an active threat to Georgia's independence, he concludes that the whole episode is "a timely reminder that in the absence of military capability, diplomacy and world opinion are worthless."

Yglesias also has further thoughts on the Russia-Georgia conflict.  In a recent post, he discusses the idea of "ethical realism"-also the title of a book by Anatol Lieven and John Hulsman.  Yglesias' basic argument is that morality in foreign policy cannot be myopic.  So if one contends that maintaining a good relationship with Russia and China is valuable "so as to allow for progress on nuclear proliferation, climate change, and international terrorism," it does not necessarily follow that morality must be set aside to pursue other interests.   That is, "morally speaking, the one course is better than the other."

 

The World Beyond Denver (August 26)

While just about everybody's focus is on Denver, Yglesias manages to look abroad and note that Russia has officially recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  He isn't too discouraged, because even though the "Bush administration's done nothing meaningful to stop the Russians from having their way with Georgia…the consequences for the wider world have been less than dramatic."

Iran is still out there too. Barack Obama mentioned the Islamic Republic on the campaign trail yesterday, and Abe Greenwald of Contentions is none-too-happy with the way he did it.  Obama said a nuclear Iran would be a "game-changer for the region," and that "no option is to be taken off the table, but in the meantime we have to make diplomatic progress."  Greenwald comments: "How about a game-changer for Obama? He used the same lines back in July, and they've grown no more substantive with age. If he is going to be champion of diplomacy until the eleventh hour, he needs to employ some of that famous out-of-the-box audacity and throw something-anything-specific and new into this long-failed calculus." And so on.

Powerline's John Hinderaker is taken aback by Nancy Pelosi's confusion about natural gas on Meet the Press. He summarizes, "Mrs. Pelosi declared herself a major advocate of natural gas as an energy source, but then revealed that she is ignorant of the fact that natural gas is a fossil fuel."