The Russian military and pro-Russian separatist forces continue to lose thousands of men to the fighting in Ukraine every day.

However, the Russian political and military leadership is willing to take big losses to achieve its goals in Ukraine.

Russian Casualties in Ukraine: Steady As It Goes

In July, the Russian forces suffered approximately 36,000 men killed, wounded, and captured. These casualties are in line with those of June (around 35,000) and slightly lower than those of May (around 40,000).

“The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine has fallen over the past two months from a conflict high of over 1,262 per day in May to 1,140 in July 2024,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in one of its latest estimates of the war.

“Despite this reduction, the last three months have been the costliest for the Russian forces since February 2022, according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting,” the British Military Intelligence added.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has been one of the main sources of Russian casualty data. Despite the obvious bias, Kyiv has largely provided accurate reporting since it has been largely corroborated by Western military and intelligence sources. However, the casualty data coming out of Kyiv seem to be more accurate when it concerns manpower losses than materiel losses. For example, the Ukrainian military estimates that the Russian military has lost over 8,000 main battle tanks, whereas Western assessments put that number closer to 3,000 tanks—still a significant blow to Moscow’s combat power as it represents the Russian military’s entire prewar arsenal.

A good portion of the losses of the prior two months were the result of a large-scale offensive against Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest urban center in the east. The operation failed, and the Ukrainian military regained much of the lost territory.

“The reduction in daily average is likely indicative of Russian forces consolidating positions on the Kharkiv axis. Although this new approach has increased the pressure on the frontline, an effective Ukrainian defense and a lack of Russian training reduces Russia’s ability to exploit any tactical successes into wider operational gains,” the British Military Intelligence stated.

In the absence of the requisite combat power and ability to leverage tactical successes, Moscow is forced to pursue a strategy of attrition. Russian president Vladimir Putin seems to be content with sacrificing over 1,000 of his men on a daily basis in order to exhaust the Ukrainians. The dictatorial nature of Russian politics and the lack of any meaningful opposition to Putin means that this strategy of attrition will continue.

“Russia’s casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day throughout August 2024 as Russia continues offensive operations on a wide front from Kharkiv in the north to Robotyne in the south of Ukraine,” the British Military Intelligence concluded.

With the current rate of casualties and a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive during the fall, it is likely that the Russian forces are going to reach 700,000 casualties by the end of the year.

About the Author: 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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