Summary and Key Points: The Russian military’s invasion of Ukraine, originally intended to be a swift victory, has turned into a prolonged conflict with significant losses.

-Nearly 900 days into the war, Russia is facing not only high casualties but also internal instability marked by corruption and shifting loyalties.

-The recent arrest of former Deputy Defense Minister Dmitry Bulgakov on corruption charges highlights the endemic corruption within Russia's defense industry, which has long been tolerated under President Putin’s patronage system.

The Ukraine War Is a Giant Headache for Russia and Putin

The Russian military is struggling in Ukraine. A so-called special military operation that was projected to last no longer than two weeks has turned into the largest conflict on European soil since the end of World War Two. Close to 900 days after the first Russian mechanized regiments crossed the border into Ukraine, the Russian military is stuck fighting a strategy of very high attrition, and Moscow loses more than 1,000 men killed or wounded every day. 

At the same time, cracks continue to appear within the Russian political and military system. Loyalties shift quickly in a country at war, as many Russian officials have found out lately. 

Endemic Corruption 

Last Friday, Russian authorities arrested former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Dmitry Bulgakov on charges of corruption. Gulgakov served in the post for 15 years until 2022. The reason for his arrest, according to Russian media, was the military’s procurement at inflated prices of food that was unfit for human consumption. 

“As previously reported, corruption is endemic in the Russian defense industry and is broadly tolerated within certain limits and as long as the individuals involved enjoy the required level of political patronage,” British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war. 

Like a tsar of old, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been ruling his country and ensuring his political – and actual – survival by handing out political patronage. The more loyal one is to the Kremlin, the more likely he or she is to receive lucrative gifts, contracts, or even monopolies. 

“The full-scale war in Ukraine has generated a crackdown on corrupt practices, both in a practical sense, to reduce budgetary wastage during a very costly military campaign; but also because political patrons such as former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, have lost direct influence over procurement processes,” British Military Intelligence stated. 

This corruption translates to a less effective military force. Supplies might not get delivered, and when they are, their quality is likely to be poor. 

The Russian political system is like a pyramid, with Putin at the top and a select number of advisers directly below. A number of oligarchs are then followed by the oligarchs’ beneficiaries, and the list goes on. Patronage rolls down from the top. 

“While current Defense Minister Andrei Belousov is likely attempting to limit corrupt practices, it is highly unlikely that he will be able or willing to eliminate corruption in Russian defense spending,” British Military Intelligence concluded. 

Corruption facilitates human intelligence collection. The more corrupt the official structure of a country, the more likely it is to have candidates ripe for recruitment to spy in exchange for monetary or material rewards. The Kremlin understands that, and it is likely one of the reasons for this crackdown on corruption, especially considering Putin has long used corruption to control his oligarchs. 

About the Author: 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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