Russian Losses in Ukraine Could Hit 700,000 Soldiers Total by This Year

M1 Abrams Tank U.S. Army
July 30, 2024 Topic: Security Region: Europe Blog Brand: The Buzz Tags: RussiaUkraineWar In UkrainePutinRussian MilitaryNATO

Russian Losses in Ukraine Could Hit 700,000 Soldiers Total by This Year

Despite Putin's crackdowns, corruption hampers Russia's military effectiveness. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to suffer heavy casualties, with estimates suggesting losses will reach 700,000 by year's end.

 

Summary and Key Points: Corruption in Russia's defense and aerospace industry is a growing concern as the war in Ukraine intensifies. Western intelligence estimates that Russia loses over 20,000 artillery shells and at least 100 pieces of heavy weaponry daily.

Javelin Missile Like in Ukraine

 

-The recent arrests of high-ranking officials for embezzlement highlight the pervasive corruption within the industry. Established to streamline military procurement, the Military Construction Company has allegedly been exploited for personal gain.

-Despite Putin's crackdowns, corruption hampers Russia's military effectiveness. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to suffer heavy casualties, with estimates suggesting losses will reach 700,000 by year's end.

The War in Ukraine: Russian Losses are Staggering...But Putin Keeps Fighting 

A country’s industrial military complex is a key factor in its ability to protect itself and wage war. After all, a military needs heavy weapon systems and ammunition to fight. As the fighting in Ukraine continues to show, the demands of modern conventional warfare are very high indeed.

For example, Western intelligence estimates put the number of artillery shells used by the Russian military during heavy fighting at over 20,000 per day. In terms of attrition, moreover, the Russian forces are losing at least 100 pieces of heavy weaponry every day.

A military can’t sustain such losses and demand for resources without a robust industrial military complex. So, the fact that corruption runs rampant in the Russian defense and aerospace industry is concerning the Kremlin.

Corruption in the Russian Industrial Military Complex

According to Russian media, Andrei Belkov, the head of the Russian Defense Ministry’s Military Construction Company has been arrested on charges of corruption for his activities during the procurement of military goods. Established in 2019, the Military Construction Company was created to streamline Russian military procurement and make it more efficient.

“In reality it is likely the company has been used to extract rents by corrupt officials,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.

In addition, last week, the former director of a tactical missile plant was sentenced to prison for embezzling military funds and inflating prices.

“Corruption is endemic in the Russian defense industry. In 2007, an audit commissioned by the then Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov revealed that 70% of Ministry of Defense budgetary resources were used for purposes other than those officially designated,” the British Military Intelligence added.

 

The Russian economy is heavily centered around corruption, with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the center and several oligarchs around the table. The transactional nature of Russian politics further encourages corruption.

“Some of this corruption is tolerated by the Kremlin, but there have been increasing crackdowns on those not sufficiently politically protected since the start of the war in Ukraine,” the British Military Intelligence concluded.

Regardless of how much Putin and his Kremlin advisers would like it, the Russian defense and aerospace industry is inferior to that of the United States and the West. Corruption—which certainly exists in the U.S. and the West—is one of the main reasons behind the fact that Russia’s weapons and platforms are not as good as those of its adversaries.

Russian Casualties in the Ukraine War are Historic 

Meanwhile, the Russian forces continue to take heavy casualties on the ground. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, over the last 24 hours, the Russian forces lost approximately 1,310 men killed, wounded, or captured, as well as 76 artillery pieces and multiple launch rocket systems, 62 tactical vehicles and fuel trucks, 39 unmanned aerial systems, 19 pieces of special equipment, 12 main battle tanks, 8 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, and 1 anti-aircraft weapon system.

NLAW

As with previous assessments here at The National Interest, the Russian forces are likely to close the year with 700,000 losses.

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

All images are Creative Commons.