Summary and Key Points: The Russian military is intensifying its offensive in the Donbas, making steady advances despite heavy casualties.

-Over recent weeks, Russian forces have captured several villages and moved closer to the logistics hub of Pokrovsk, which supports a significant portion of the Ukrainian defensive line.

-Additionally, the town of Niu York remains contested. Despite these tactical gains, Russia's operational capability is hampered by high attrition, limited training, and a shortage of officers. Ukrainian defense forces report significant Russian losses, including 1,060 personnel, 53 vehicles, and 47 artillery systems in the past 24 hours.

-The conflict remains intense, with no sign of de-escalation.

The Ukraine War: Russia Steps Up Attacks in Donbas 

Over the past few weeks, the Russian forces have made some progress. 

“In July 2024, Russian Ground Forces (RGF) maintained continuous attacks in central Donetsk Oblast,” British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate on the war. “The RGF made steady advances westwards, taking control of several villages and moving closer to the logistics hub of Pokrovsk.”

The logistical functions at Pokrovsk support a good part of the contact line in the Donbas. Losing it would complicate Ukraine’s defense. 

“The RGF also made advances northwards into the town of Niu York, which has been on the frontline since 2014. The town is almost certainly contested between the RFG and Ukrainian Armed Forces,” British Military Intelligence stated.

It is worth remembering that the fighting in some parts of the Donbas has been going on for a decade now. It began soon after the illegal Russian invasion and annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. Pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts then launched a full-scale insurgency in the Donbas with Russia's direct and indirect support. 

When the Russian military launched its full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, fighting in the area reignited. However, despite fluctuations on the contact line, there are some places where the positions have remained fairly similar to 10 years ago. 

“It is likely that Russia will continue to make tactical advances in the coming weeks. However, its overall operational capability remains limited by several factors including a high attrition rate, limited training, and a shortage of officers,” British Military Intelligence concluded. 

As we have discussed previously here at The National Interest, Russian forces are taking extremely heavy losses on a daily basis. 

Russian Casualties are Mounting in Ukraine War  

According to the latest data released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense – data generally corroborated by Western military intelligence estimates – Russian forces over the last 24 hours lost approximately 1,060 men killed, wounded, or captured, as well as 53 tactical vehicles and fuel trucks, 47 artillery guns and multiple launch rocket systems, 38 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 27 unmanned aerial systems, 25 main battle tanks, and 6 pieces of special equipment. 

Despite the heavy losses, the Russian forces continue to be on the offensive. However, the scope of the Russian offensives is very limited. Indeed, instead of trying to achieve an operational breakthrough and move the conflict forward, the Russian forces are vying for tactical successes. This is almost certainly because they lack the necessary combat capability and resources to conduct maneuver warfare of the sort necessary to achieve larger results on the battlefield. As such, Moscow’s casualties both dictate and restrict the way the Russian military fights in Ukraine. 

About the Author: 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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