China has been strengthening its ties to Iran in recent years, and that has included support to Iran's regional proxies—notably the Houthi rebels in Yemen. It is part of a burgeoning partnership or even a de facto alliance between Tehran and China.

Just last October, China's President Xi Jinping met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia—the first time the Islamic Republic participated in the summit. Xi expressed a desire to develop friendly cooperation with Iran.

A Top Buyer of Iranian Oil

Iran currently remains China's top oil supplier, and according to Reuters, Beijing currently buys about 90% of Tehran's oil exports at a discount. It was just a year ago that Iran's exports even reached a five-year high after growing by 50% in 2023, despite Western sanctions.

Yet, because of this partnership, any slowdown in China's economy could have a ripple effect that reaches all the way to Iran.

"Admittedly, the economic contraction in China also decreased oil demand, which in turn erases some of Iran's leverage," explained Irina Tsukerman, geopolitical analyst and president of Scarab Uprising. "Moreover, in light of Trump's expected crackdown on Iranian oil smuggling, there is a growing concern in the CCP circles about the potential enforcement or levying of sanctions related to business with Iran and Russia."

Beyond oil, China and Iran remain close trading partners, while there has been speculation that some in Tehran may view Russia as a declining power—and possibly even more so as Russia has been essentially driven from its bases in Syria and has required military personnel from North Korea to bolster its war effort in Ukraine.

Given these ongoing geopolitical changes, Tehran and Beijing will likely continue to cooperate closely in areas detrimental to U.S. interests.

"China has sold Iran its top-of-the-line surveillance technology; Chinese and Iranian hackers and spies are involved in joint operations around the world, and the cybersecurity cooperation is growing in general," Tsukerman told The National Interest. "China is also an important leaser of lands in Iran, even if the business cooperation in practice is not as smooth as it could be due to long-standing cultural differences."

China is Still Thinking About China First

Despite the good relations that are now being forged between Beijing and Tehran, it would be unwise to read too much into this growing partnership. It is more than a relationship of convenience, but the CCP will always think of China first and its partners afterward.

"While this sort of cooperation is mutually beneficial and pragmatic, and Iran and China also can open doors for each other in various strategic areas such as Russia, the CCP has its own agenda at the forefront and will pivot to other actors—such as Turkey, the apparent new suzerain in Syria—as needed, and it will certainly not risk its geopolitical priorities, such as the potential dominance in the South China Sea, to support Iran's skirmishes if they backfire," said Tsukerman.

For those reasons, Iran will remain somewhat of a junior partner to China rather than a country with serious "pull" or leverage over China. This is simply due to the fact that China is a much bigger country with a much greater economy and much more political and economic legitimacy and sway around the world.
 
This is the second part in a three-part series on China's growing influence in the Middle East. Thank you to Irina Tsukerman for her insight.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].

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