Summary: China's aggressive claims over the South China Sea, including areas like the Second Thomas Shoal, are part of a broader strategy to secure regional dominance, particularly in preparation for potential future conflicts, such as with Taiwan. This assertion of power is underpinned by historical claims depicted in China’s “Cow Tongue” map. The strategic importance of the South China Sea, through which a third of global trade passes, presents significant geopolitical stakes.

-China's construction of military facilities on man-made islands in the region during the Obama administration has bolstered its ability to control critical maritime routes. Additionally, the desire to exploit the region's rich oil and natural gas resources aligns with Beijing’s goal to make its economy less dependent on imports that could be disrupted by U.S. naval forces.

-The U.S. response, perceived as inadequate under the Biden administration, could embolden China further, potentially escalating to a broader conflict involving global trade, internet warfare, and the use of advanced weaponry.

China's Strategic Push in the South China Sea: Implications for Global Security"

China is picking a fight with the Philippines for control over the South China Sea. China covets a handful of territories, specifically the Second Thomas Shoal, where a makeshift Philippines military facility sits in a rusting, abandoned, grounded cargo ship. 

There are many reasons why China desires this region, even though it is clearly not Chinese territory. None of them has to do with the Philippines. 

I would argue China wants to solidify sea control of local territories in the run-up to an obvious military move against Taiwan, whether that move be a blockade, an invasion, or both. China needs to control the South and East China Seas first.

In the case of the Second Thomas Shoal and the wider South China Sea, Beijing is following its long-professed “Cow Tongue” map of claims. According to China’s revisionist historians, the South China Sea was part of the Chinese Empire before the West conquered and colonized China. In the name of decolonization, therefore, the rest of the region must be made to respect Chinese territorial claims in these areas. 

Of course, the Chinese claims are hogwash. Even if they were historically accurate, there exists a regional order that upholds the notion that much of the territory in the South China Sea that Beijing covets either belongs to other nations, such as the Philippines or is in international waters and belongs to no one. 

China’s Revanchist Claims in the South China Sea

Nevertheless, China persists in its revanchist claims on the South China Sea. What’s at play is more than the Marxist obsession with “decolonization.” Instead, China is playing a cold, calculated game of classical geopolitics. 

The South China Sea is a key entry point for China into the wider South Pacific and the Indian Ocean beyond, where China has designs to dominate as well. 

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade Development, one-third of all global trade passes through the South China Sea. During the Obama administration, China was allowed to illegally establish dozens of manmade islands that today house hardened military facilities along key international shipping routes. 

If China were to acquire the Philippine territories of the South China Sea, as they appear poised to do, they could disrupt international trade at a level never previously experienced. The world has already endured the disruptions to maritime trading routes in the Red Sea or the Strait of Bab El-Mandeb that the Iran-backed Houthi Rebels from Yemen have imposed. That would be small change compared to what China could do if it were to capture the South China Sea entirely, militarize it, and then squeeze it off during a conflict with the U.S. and its allies over Taiwan. 

China Wants the Oil & Natural Gas Rights in the South China Sea 

What’s more, China wants to dominate the massive oil and natural gas deposits that sit beneath the South China Sea. They want this not just to make money for their slowing economy. Beijing is also attempting to sanction-proof and blockade-proof its economy.

By conquering a swathe of territory nearby with loads of mineable natural resources, China is accomplishing its task of being less reliant on resources imported from distant places where the U.S. Navy can intercept shipments. 

If China were to dominate the South China Sea, it could more thoroughly project power from that location, complicating U.S. power projection into the region even more than China’s forces already have. 

Reports have circulated that a Chinese spy ship got precariously close to a U.S. Navy warship, the USS Harpers Ferry, which was passing through the South China Sea in a show of solidarity with the embattled Philippines. I would argue China is readying to make a bold move, and it starts against the Philippines in the South China Sea. 

Biden Won’t Stop Xi from Taking the South China Sea

The United States will not do anything to stop the Chinese when and if China decides to drop the hammer on the Philippines in the South China Sea. And because of this, the Chinese will feel encouraged to go beyond the South China Sea. With any semblance of U.S. deterrence erased under President Joe Biden, Beijing will next set its sights on Taiwan. 

China’s autocratic ruler-for-life may decide that the fall of this year is the optimal time to strike against Taiwan, noting that if Biden were removed from the presidency and replaced by a Republican administration, the U.S. might find its strategic backbone once again. 

Any conflict waged between China and the United States over control of the Indo-Pacific will be brutal. It will not be confined only to the distant war zone of the Indo-Pacific. The war will be waged in our backyards. It will be conducted across the internet, in the strategic high ground of space, and in our wallets.

Should the war devolve into something more existential, as many fear it will, that conflict could see the introduction of exotic weapons with devastating impacts in both China and America, against which there are little, if any, real defenses. 

About the Author

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.