Balancing partnerships in the Middle East is never easy, especially when it involves the sale of advanced military hardware. When it involves the most advanced stealth fighter, complicated doesn’t begin to describe the situation.

During President-elect Donald Trump’s first term, the White House sought to sell the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) after the Middle Eastern nation formalized relations with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords.

Israel had previously opposed the Arab nation’s acquisition of the fifth-generation stealth fighter but later withdrew its objections. The Jewish state’s security doctrine has long prioritized qualitative superiority over neighbors and possible rivals. Israel has sought out the most advanced military technology from the United States—or developed it domestically with some programs, such as its Merkava main battle tanks (MBTs)—while the Israel Defense Force (IDF) also would like to deny the same technology to adversaries (and potential adversaries). As a nation surrounded by hostility, Israel must acknowledge that today’s friends could be tomorrow’s enemies (Iran is such an example).

However, the deal was never closed, and the Biden administration didn’t move forward. That had seemed to be the end of it.

Then, last fall, there were reports that the UAE hoped to revive the multi-billion dollar deal if Trump won the 2024 presidential election—which he did, making the greatest political comeback in modern history. That could result in a significant reverse course yet again, as Abu Dhabi had this past spring indicated it could adopt the Chinese-made Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragon, arguably the most successful fifth-gen fighter program after the F-35.

Beijing and Abu Dhabi have sought to expand cooperation through investments in the Pacific islands and Africa. The Gulf state is also considering increasing the use of China’s currency, the yuan, which offers China a low-risk gateway into the region. Washington may use the F-35 to earn renewed favor with the UAE.

Saudi Arabia Is Going With Turkey

NATO member Turkey was infamously expelled from the F-35 program for its adoption of the Russian-made S-400 Triumf air defense system. Options have been floated that could see Ankara return to the proverbial F-35 fold, but whether that occurs after Trump returns to the White House remains an unknown.

In the meantime, Turkey has sought to develop the domestically-built next-generation TF Kaan stealth fighter. To help fund its development, Ankara has sought foreign buyers—and among the countries that have expressed interest is Saudi Arabia.

As the F-35 was likely off the table for many of the reasons already stated, Riyadh has explored other options. The selection of the Turkish-made fighter would likely be met with more approval from Washington than alternatives from China (the J-20 Mighty Dragon) or, worse, Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 (NATO reporting name Felon).

“A deal for 100 TF Kaans would similarly come without precedent and could give Turkey some much-needed investment in the ambitious aircraft project. Additionally, such a large Saudi order could help bring down the price per aircraft, which could, in turn, help Turkey win some additional foreign customers who would otherwise hesitate over the price tag,” Paul Iddon wrote for Forbes.

As Iddon also noted, the TF Kaan may not be a true “fifth-gen” fighter, but rather a “4.75-generation,” and “a notch above the Dassault Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon but below truly fifth-generation stealth aircraft like the F-35 and F-22 Raptor.”

Such would be good news for Israel, which would maintain an edge even as the two countries inch closer to some formal recognition. At the same time, it would ensure Saudi Arabia could acquire the capabilities needed to deter Iran in a regional conflict.

Morocco And The F-35

In late November, reports first circulated that Morocco could be on track to become the first Arab and African nation to acquire the F-35. Rabat’s desire to operate the F-35 comes as its regional rival Algeria has sought the Russian Su-57.

The Algerian Air Force currently operates various Soviet-designed aircraft, including the Mikoyan MiG-29 and Sukhoi Su-24 from the late Cold War. In 2022, it ordered around a dozen Sukhoi Su-30sMKA. Moreover, Moscow has maintained close ties with Algiers since the Cold War, when the Soviet Union provided military, technical, and material support to Algeria during its war for independence from France.

In November, Morocco also reasserted ties with the Jewish state for the first time since the Gaza war began. Morocco is the sixth Arab League nation that has normalized relations with Israel.

Morocco’s acquisition of the F-35 could help bolster ties with the United States and Israel while maintaining a balance of power in North Africa. But like every other aspect of the F-35 in the Arab world, it will likely be complicated!

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites, with over 3,200 published pieces and over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].

Image: WoodysPhotos / Shutterstock.com.