Summary and Key Points: The Ukrainian military has likely destroyed the Russian Kilo-class submarine Rostov-on-Don in Sevastopol, Crimea, using a combination of unmanned aerial systems and MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS).

-This marks the final chapter for the submarine, which had been heavily damaged in a previous Ukrainian strike in September 2023. The submarine had been involved in Russia’s long-range missile strikes against Ukraine.

-While the attack is a significant morale boost for Ukraine, British Military Intelligence suggests it will not greatly impact Russia's maritime strike capabilities but may force Russia to reconsider its naval deployments in Crimea.

-The Ukrainian military continues to strike targets deep behind the frontlines. In one of their latest attacks, the Ukrainians destroyed a Russian submarine. 

Submarine Destroyed 

“On 3 August 2024, a Ukrainian attack on Crimea highly likely resulted in the sinking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet KILO-Class submarine ROSTOV ON DON,” British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war. 

To achieve such a result, the Ukrainian military used a combination of unmanned aerial systems and MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). 

The Russian submarine was harbored in Sevastopol, the capital of Crimea and the headquarters of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainian military has struck high-value targets in and around Sevastopol with increased frequency. Some of the targets include the headquarters of the Russian Navy, shipyards, fuel depots, and S-300/S-400 air defense batteries. 

The Russian military invaded and illegally annexed Ukraine in 2014. Since then, the Kremlin has turned the Ukrainian peninsula into a fortress, moving hundreds of thousands of troops into the area and constructing extensive fortifications. 

“Contrary to some reporting, the submarine had highly likely not been fully repaired from a previous attack on Crimea in September 2023,” British Military Intelligence stated. 

On Sept. 13, 2023, the Ukrainian military launched a salvo of cruise missiles – most likely Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG air-launched munitions – against the Russian Navy in Sevastopol. The Rostov-on-Don submarine was hit while it lay in the shipyard for maintenance. A subsequent large fire heavily damaged the vessel. 

“This latest attack is almost certainly the final chapter for the submarine with it highly likely being more economically viable to build a replacement submarine than recover and repair it,” British Military Intelligence added.

One of the main reasons the Ukrainians targeted the Russian submarine was its part in the Russian military’s long-range strikes against Ukrainian urban centers and critical infrastructure. Since February 24, 2022, Russian forces have launched thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles and suicide drones against Ukraine, killing and wounding thousands of innocent civilians and destroying or damaging significant parts of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. 

“Although this is a significant morale boost to the Ukrainian forces, this is highly unlikely to have any major impact on Russian long range maritime strikes into Ukraine from the Black Sea Fleet,” British Military Intelligence assessed.

“The strike does highlight the increasing risks to Russian forces in Crimea and will highly likely force Russia to reconsider any plans to relocate any significant maritime force back to the peninsula,” British Military Intelligence concluded. 

Although the Ukrainian Navy is almost non-existent, Kyiv has sunk or destroyed dozens of Russian warships and support vessels since the war began. Using a combination of anti-ship missiles and suicide drones, the Ukrainians have wreaked havoc on Russian shipping and have forced the Kremlin to relocate much of its naval forces from the Crimean Peninsula back to Russia. 

About the Author 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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