What You Need to Know: Russia's recent changes to its nuclear doctrine and tests of the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile are raising concerns about a potential escalation in the Ukraine conflict, including the possibility of a tactical nuclear test.

-This shift in policy comes as Ukraine uses U.S.-supplied ATACMS and UK-provided Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets within Russian territory. A nuclear test, while unlikely due to its potential to further alienate Russia internationally, would mark a dramatic escalation not seen since the end of the Cold War.

-The Oreshnik test underscores Russia's capability to deliver nuclear strikes, heightening tensions as both sides brace for further escalation.

Russian Tactical Nuclear Test Coming Soon? 

Russia has modified its nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for unleashing a nuclear attack to include conventional weapons strikes on targets within Russian soil. The threshold-lowering seems to come in direct response to Ukraine’s use of American-supplied ATACMS, and UK-supplied Storm Shadow, missiles against targets in Russia. As Ukrainian conventional attacks against Russian-based targets continue, the world is left to wonder how Russia will respond. One response being pondered: is the testing of a tactical nuclear device.  

Would Putin Test a Tactical Nuke? 

Were Putin to test a nuclear weapon it would mark an escalation in the ongoing conflict and would likely serve to alienate Russia from the international community further. The upside, from Russia’s perspective, would possibly be the enhancement of Ukraine’s respect for Russia and its nuclear capabilities, which would possibly inspire Ukraine to stop unleashing conventional weapons attacks against Russian-based targets.  

But remember, Russia/the Soviet Union has not conducted a nuclear weapon test since 1990. That’s thirty-four years without a single test. 

Not once in Putin’s generation in power has he ever conducted a single nuclear test. So, a nuclear test would mark a significant departure from the status quo, and a departure from the moratorium on nuclear testing that the Soviet Union proposed and the U.S. and UK accepted, for more, see the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. 

Granted, relations between Russia and the West are worse now than at any point since the 1980s. Granted, Russia has found itself embroiled in a conflict more entrenched and inflammatory than any since the Invasion of Afghanistan, meaning more drastic measures, i.e., a nuclear weapons test, could be plausible. But still, safe money says a nuclear weapons test would fall beyond the pale.  

Concerning Behavior 

Russia has been engaging in some concerning behavior, specifically a recent test of an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile, the sort of platform that could be used to deliver a nuclear warhead to Ukrainian soil.  

Putin said the new missile was called Oreshnik and had been fired with a non-nuclear warhead.  

“Ukraine’s air force said a ballistic missile hit the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro, saying it was launched from the Astrakhan region in southeastern Russia, more than 770 miles away,” NPR reported. The intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) damaged, “an industrial facility, a rehabilitation center for people with disabilities, and residential buildings.”  

More importantly, perhaps, the Oreshnik test demonstrates concretely the Russian ability to deliver a nuclear device to the heart of Ukraine.  

Zelenskyy, in response to the test, said, “This is an obvious and serious increase in the scale and brutality of this war.” 

Putin said that, “our test use of Oreshnik in real conflict conditions is a response to the aggressive actions by NATO countries towards Russia…we believe that we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities of the countries that allow using their weapons against our facilities.” 

About the Author

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.     

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