Summary and Key Points: Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to expand the Russian military by an additional 180,000 troops, bringing the total to 1.5 million by December 2024.

-This move follows significant casualties in Ukraine, with Russian forces reportedly losing over 1,000 soldiers daily.

-Despite Putin’s aspirations, British Military Intelligence suggests that Russia’s recruitment efforts may struggle to meet this target, especially given the heavy losses and low-quality training of new recruits.

-The Russian military’s daily toll in men and equipment raises concerns about whether this expansion will improve its overall effectiveness.

Russia’s Military to Grow by 180,000 Troops: Can It Overcome Recruitment Challenges? 

With over 600,000 casualties from the fighting in Ukraine on his back, Russian President Vladimir Putin is looking to expand his military to 1.5 million men. 

The move comes at a moment in the war when Russian commanders are using human wave attacks, sacrificing over a thousand of their men every day. 

Military Expansion 

“On 16 September 2024, Russian President Putin signed a decree to increase the size of the Russian military with an additional 180,000 personnel to 1.5 million in total coming into effect from December 2024,” British Military Intelligence states in its latest estimate of the war. 

This is the third time since the start of large-scale fighting in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, that Putin has signed a decree to expand the size of the Russian armed forces. Russian officials have repeatedly referenced the goal of a larger military. 

“Russia’s aspiration to expand its military is well-established. In December 2022, then-Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called on the Russian forces to be enlarged to 1.5 million,” British Military Intelligence added. “Russia will likely increase the number and size of units in its ground forces to accommodate the majority of the additional 180,000 personnel.” 

As we have previously covered here at The National Interest, the Russian military is facing both extremely heavy casualties in the fighting and a challenge to recruit enough men to sustain casualty levels. As such, the Kremlin’s planned military expansion isn’t guaranteed. 

“Despite the stated intent to expand its force, it is likely that this ambition will be hampered by continued heavy losses sustained in the conflict against Ukraine and recruitment challenges,” British Military Intelligence concluded.

Russian forces are taking at least 1,000 casualties every day – sometimes way over that number – while their recruitment efforts attract roughly the same number of men on a daily basis. If there is a net gain in the overall strength of the Russian military, it isn’t significant enough to allow for an expansion of around 200,000 men without any additional measures. 

This discussion, of course, doesn’t even account for the quality of the troops. More doesn’t necessarily mean better in a military setting. The recruitment strategy that the Kremlin is pursuing certainly doesn’t guarantee improvement. The men who turn up on the frontline units are ill-trained and ill-equipped. That is a primary reason for their high casualty rate, with the other one being a lack of sophistication in the officer ranks of the Russian military. 

Russian Casualties in the Ukraine War

Over the past 24 hours, the Russian military, paramilitary mercenaries, and pro-Russian separatist forces suffered approximately 1,130 killed, wounded, and captured. They also lost 63 unmanned aerial systems; 55 tactical vehicles and fuel trucks; 24 artillery pieces and multiple launch rocket systems; 14 main battle tanks; and 13 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers. 

These figures are based on released data by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. Despite the obvious issue of bias in Kyiv’s reporting, the data is often corroborated by Western intelligence assessments. 

About the Author: 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.