Launch Problems in Thunder-2019

Russia reportedly had some launch problems during the Thunder-2019 exercise. One of the two planned SS-N-18 launches was cancelled because of technical problems.[32] Reportedly, Russia had problems in launching Kalibr nuclear cruise missiles. The problem was, reportedly, that a new system designed to reduce launch time failed, and a backup system was used, which resulted in about a three-hour launch delay.[33] This sounds like a problem that will be resolved. Typically, the Russia Defense Ministry denied there were any problems with the Kalibr launches.[34] The Russian Defense Ministry also announced that the status of all SS-N-18 missiles would be reviewed.[35] This is not a great problem for the Russians because the SS-N-18 and the submarine that carries it (the Delta III) are the oldest in the Russian inventory, and, reportedly, only one such submarine remains operational.[36]

Thunder-2019 and Russian Nuclear Doctrine

The Russian statement about the Grom-2019 nuclear exercise provides additional evidence that the real Russian nuclear first use doctrine is different from what is contained in their official declaratory policy in their military doctrine publications. According to Maxim Starchak:  

In particular, Major General Yevgeny Ilyin, the acting head of the Russian defense ministry's main directorate for international military cooperation, held a press conference for foreign military attachés the day before Grom 2019 kicked off. He reported that the exercise is not directed against other countries: "The maneuvers' scenario envisages the escalation of a situation in which there remains the potential for conflict along Russian borders that would pose a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state" (TASS, October, 14). However, General Ilyin's statement, in fact, contradicted the much higher bar set by the Russian Military Doctrine, which states that nuclear weapons could only be used in response to a nuclear attack or "aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”[37]

There is actually no conflict between General Ilyin’s description of the exercise, and Russia's proclaimed nuclear doctrine because its language conditioning nuclear first use in conventional war to “the very existence of the state” is propaganda. Russia classified its real nuclear first use doctrine in 2009 when the Russian Defense Ministry announced that Russia’s policy on “the use of nuclear weapons as an instrument of strategic deterrence” was going to be put into the “closed part” of its military doctrine.[38] At the time, Russia did not want to appear nuclear trigger-happy in relationship to President Obama’s declaratory policy of nuclear zero. In the 2010 revision of Russia’s military doctrine, the threshold for nuclear weapons first use in conventional war either stayed the same (as stated by then-Deputy Prime Minister Colonel General Sergei Ivanov when the document was made public)[39] or actually got worse. Ilya Kramnik, who had been the long-time military correspondent for an official Russian news agency RIA Novosti, wrote in Lenta.ru that the 2010 revision of Russia’s military doctrine “further lowered” the threshold of “combat use” of nuclear weapons.[40] In September 2014, General of the Army (ret.) Yuriy Baluyevskiy, who developed the 2010 revision of Russia’s nuclear doctrine when he was Deputy Secretary of the Russian National Security Council, stated that the “…conditions for pre-emptive nuclear strikes…is contained in classified policy documents.”[41]

Russia's actual threshold for nuclear weapons' first use in conventional war may be the language that General Ilyin used or similar to it. In 2008, General of the Army Baluyevskiy, then-Chief of the General Staff and First Deputy Defense Minister, threatened preventive nuclear war: “We do not intend to attack anyone, but we consider it necessary for all our partners in that to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and its allies, military forces will be used, including preventively, including with the use of nuclear weapons.”[42] State-run RT (formerly Russia Today) and the independent Interfax news agencies both reported that Russian military doctrine allows for nuclear weapons first use in conventional war “…if the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Russian Federation are under threat.”[43]  (Emphasis in the original RT reporting.) The meaning of a threat to “sovereignty and territorial integrity” is ambiguous enough that it may mean “any time it is in the national interest of Russia.” Any foreign military action in a border war, even a war started by Russia, could be deemed a threat to Russia’s territorial integrity. “Sovereignty” may also be broadly defined, including Russia’s sovereign right to invade its neighbors. In 2012, Putin declared, “This concerns nuclear weapons, which remain a vital guarantee of Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and play a key role in maintaining global and regional balance and stability.”[44]

In 2013, President Putin said, “Russia’s sovereignty, inde­pendence, and territorial integrity are uncondition­al.”[45] In 2014, President Putin characterized "sovereignty and territorial integrity" as "fundamental values," which are being threatened by "color revolutions," but which are guar­anteed by Russia’s strategic forces.[46] He also portrayed Russia as surrounded by enemies who want to dismember it and are only prevented from doing so by Russia’s military power, stating: “So, it is not about Crimea but about us protecting our independence, our sovereignty, and our right to exist. That is what we should all realize.”[47] In 2015, he suggested Russian nuclear weapons’ use could have been possible during the Russian invasion of Crimea.[48] In 2017, Putin said, “Only modern, powerful, mobile armed forces can ensure the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country, protect us and our allies from any potential aggressor, from pressure and blackmail by those who don’t like an independent, sovereign Russia.”[49]

The title of the 2010 document, which contains Russia’s classified nuclear doctrine, is entitled the “Fundamentals of the Russian Federation’s Nuclear Deterrence Policy,” and no successor document has been announced.[50] Its content was never released to the public by the Kremlin. Dr. Stephen Blank writes that there are Russian press reports that say that in the classified document, Russia reserved the right for a nuclear response to conventional attacks on Russian nuclear forces or a ground invasion of Russian territory.[51] We must remember all of the formulations made public by Russia in its various documents on military strategy, and even the reported version dealing with “sovereignty and territorial integrity” involve the first use of nuclear weapons in a conventional war. Russia also reserves the right to retaliate by first use of nuclear weapons if chemical and biological weapons are used by an adversary without any conditions or limitations.[52]

In December 2009, then-Commander of the Strategic Missile Force Lieutenant General Andrey Shvaychenko declared that “In a conventional war, they [the nuclear ICBMs]

ensure that the opponent is forced to cease hostilities, on advantageous conditions for Russia, by means of single or multiple preventive strikes against the aggressors’ most important facilities. In a nuclear war, they ensure the destruction of facilities of the opponent’s military and economic potential by means of an initial massive nuclear missile strike and subsequent multiple and single nuclear missile strikes.”[53] Because General Shvaychenko was the Commander of the Strategic Missile Force, he talked only about nuclear ICBMs. However, the same concept applies to other Russian strategic and non-strategic nuclear forces. Note the absence of any limitations on the type of economic targets that can be subjected to this massive nuclear attack. This is why Russian targeting for general nuclear war is savage. Only when nuclear weapons are used in a conventional war is there any concern about limiting collateral damage. As Colonel General Vladimir Muravyev, then-Deputy Commander of the Strategic Missile Force, stated in 1999, “…the deterrent actions of strategic forces…[involve] strikes with both conventional and nuclear warheads with the goal of de-escalating the military conflict,” and Russian forces “…should be capable of conducting ‘surgical’ strikes…using both highly accurate, super-low yield nuclear weapons, as well as conventional ones…”[54]

Conclusion

Thunder-2019 provides an object lesson on the nature of the nuclear threat the U.S. has to deter and the consequences if deterrence fails. We have to deter both the initial Russian first use of nuclear weapons in conventional war and a massively destructive nuclear strike in what they call “nuclear war.” The fanatic Minimum Deterrence nostrums of the American left who oppose U.S. nuclear weapons modernization programs which seek to deter the full range of Russian nuclear capability risk making Thunder-2019 a grim reality.

Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served in a number of senior positions within the Office of Secretary of Defense for Policy including Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms Control Policy and Representative of the Secretary of Defense to the Nuclear Arms Control Implementation Commissions.  He also served in the senior Foreign Service as a Member of the State Department Policy Planning Staff.