Another year, and the war in Ukraine continues.

Both sides are in a difficult position, but Kyiv is in a more difficult position than Moscow right now. The Ukrainian counteroffensive failed, and Kyiv must now revitalize interest in its cause among the United States and the rest of its Western partners. 

So, what should the Ukrainian strategy be for 2024? What New Year resolutions should the Ukrainian leadership make?

2024 and the Next Day for Ukraine 

Now, after the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive and subsequent failed Russian offensive, the two sides are once more in a state of relative stalemate.

To make things clear, the war in Ukraine hasn’t—at least yet—reached a stalemate. The two sides haven’t exhausted their means, and the upcoming spring and summer fighting seasons can decide the fate of the conflict.  

In 2024, Kyiv should try to achieve an operational breakthrough somewhere on the battlefield, preferably in the south, to get within firing distance of Crimea. It’s vital now for Ukraine to show some success on the ground; otherwise, it risks losing some, if not most, of its key Western partners that enable Kyiv’s defense. 

However, Kyiv should also dedicate much effort and resources to training its forces. All the weapons in the world won’t compensate for poorly trained units. Defense is easier than offense. The Ukrainian military is no longer trying to stop the onrushing Russians. In its first counteroffensive in the fall of 2022, the Ukrainian military achieved a resounding success in the east and south because it caught the Russians off guard. A few months later, in the summer of 2023, that wasn’t longer the case.

The Kremlin is on guard now and has mobilized to prevent a catastrophe in Ukraine. Western intelligence estimates put the number of Russian troops in just southern Ukraine to over 300,000. So, against an entrenched adversary, the Ukrainian military must focus on combined arms operations and brigade-level coordination if it wants to achieve real operational progress. 

Western Support for Ukraine

Ukraine can do a lot to advance its cause. But the U.S. and the West should be more active in their military assistance as well. 

Although the U.S.-led international coalition has committed tens of billions of dollars worth of weapon systems to Ukraine, it has often done so with significant delays. Time and again, the West has been reluctant and slow to provide Kyiv with weapon systems that end up becoming vital to the Ukrainian efforts. 

For example, at around this time last year, there was a heated debate among NATO members about sending main battle tanks to Ukraine. Germany, the country of origin of the populous Leopard 2, wouldn’t budge until the U.S. made a move. The breakout came after the United Kingdom decided to send a squadron of Challenger 2 tanks, prompting the U.S. to commit 31 M1 Abrams, which forced Berlin to greenlight Leopard 2 and Leopard 1 exports to Ukraine.

The result? The Ukrainians didn’t have their complete Western tank fleet ready for the start of the counteroffensive, which played a part in its failure. This is just one instance of the problematic security aid lifeline to Ukraine. 

For the Ukrainian strategy to retain hopes of success in 2024, Kyiv must also get the weapons it needs. 

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense and national security journalist specializing in special operations. A Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), he holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP. You can email the author: [email protected].