The Ukraine War Could Be the Spark to Restart the Korean War

Ukraine War MSTA-S 155mm
October 23, 2024 Topic: Security Region: Asia Blog Brand: The Buzz Tags: North KoreaSouth KoreaMilitaryDefenseUkraineRussia

The Ukraine War Could Be the Spark to Restart the Korean War

Though Seoul could also provide small arms, ordnance and other military hardware, it would almost certainly stop well short of putting actual boots on the ground in Ukraine. Yet, even sending aid could be the spark that reignites the Korean War.

 

What You Need to Know: North Korea has reportedly deployed up to 3,000 troops to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with more expected to follow.

-U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed that North Korean soldiers are already on the frontlines, suggesting Russia's manpower shortages persist. North Korea’s aid marks a deepening of the alliance, but experts caution that North Korea may have fallen into a "Putin trap," providing more support than it will receive.

 

-Meanwhile, South Korea has hinted it may send military aid to Ukraine, raising the risk of escalating the regional conflict and potentially reigniting tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

The Korean War Could Reignite In Ukraine

The Republic of Korea (South Korea) has claimed this week that its neighbor to the north has deployed as many as 3,000 troops to Russia to support Russia. Thousands more may follow, claimed a South Korean lawmaker. On Wednesday, United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed that North Korean soldiers are already on the frontlines in Ukraine.

During a visit to Rome to meet with NATO allies, Austin said the deployment of the North Korean troops suggested that Russia's manpower issues may be continuing. Moscow has denied South Korea's claims, and labeled it "fake news."

The Dead and the Deserters

As previously reported, at least six North Korean officers were killed in missile strike, while another 18 promptly deserted! Yet, many more troops are likely to be sent to bolster Russia's forces in the coming weeks and months.

According to a report from Reuters, Pyongyang has pledged that it would aid Moscow – now its closest ally – by sending upwards of 10,000 troops, with most set to arrive by December. That would be more than double the number of personnel that North Korea was expected to deploy to Ukraine.

"Signs of troops being trained inside North Korea were detected in September and October," Park Sun-won, a member of a parliamentary intelligence committee, said after a briefing in Seoul on Wednesday. "It appears that the troops have now been dispersed to multiple training facilities in Russia and are adapting to the local environment."

Did North Korea Fall for a "Putin Trap?"

In June, Moscow and Pyongyang signed a major defense pact.

Bruce W. Bennett, writing for The National Interest in June, explained, "The agreement involves a mutual defense commitment between Russia and North Korea as well as military-technical cooperation. However, details matter, and the details of that agreement and ongoing Russian assistance are not known. And the agreement is almost certainly not a basis for a new Russia-China-North Korea alliance, given the very differing objectives of these three countries."

North Korea

 

It would appear that North Korea's commitment is more solid than what was possibly understood in June. Moscow already seems to be benefiting from the agreement, perhaps more than Pyongyang.

As Bennett added, "The mutual defense commitment could be a 'Putin trap,' with Russian president Vladimir Putin getting military assistance from North Korea that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un cannot expect in return."

Will Seoul Send Its Forces?

On Tuesday, South Korean officials also warned that it would also consider aiding Ukraine with weapons and other military hardware – which could greatly increase the risk of escalation in the regional conflict.

South Korea has already begun to position itself as a major arms producer and exporter, and Ukraine could be a good (for lack of a better word) "opportunity" to put its K-2 Black Panther main battle tank (MBT) to the test against the best Russia has to offer. While there is always the risk that it could underperform, service at the frontlines could help South Korea determine if there are any flaws that only combat will reveal.

Though Seoul could also provide small arms, ordnance and other military hardware, it would almost certainly stop well short of putting actual boots on the ground in Ukraine. Yet, even sending aid could be the spark that reignites the Korean War.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].

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