Was Ukraine Plotting to Attack Russia's Navy Day Celebration?
The question is whether Russia actually knew there was an ongoing plot or simply wanted to ensure there would be no attack. It also remains unclear whether Washington instructed Kyiv not to carry out such a strike.
Did Moscow Really Ask Washington to Stop Ukrainian Attack on Putin's Parade?: Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine has dragged on for more than two and a half years. During that time, the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet has lost its flagship and numerous other vessels.
There are now reports that Moscow worried about the possibility of Ukrainian attacks on annual Navy Day celebrations in St. Petersburg, and that the Kremlin even reached out to the United States to deter Ukraine.
According to the Ukrainian news outlet Pravda, "The Russian Ministry of Defence asked U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to persuade Ukraine not to conduct military operations in Russia on the country's Navy Day on 28 July."
According to reports, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on TV channel Russia-1 that Defense Minister Andrei Belousov "personally called" Austin to discuss the matter, warning that such an attack could cause an escalation.
Was Ukraine Looking to Carry Out an Attack?
Kyiv has not confirmed it was preparing for an attack, but as previously reported, the Kremlin significantly scaled back the event, which has been a national holiday in Russia since 2017. Russian President Vladimir Putin regularly attends Navy Day celebrations, which typically include a parade of Russian and foreign military vessels.
The main parade, normally held at the Russian naval base in Kronstadt, was canceled. A smaller event in St. Petersburg on the Neva River was scaled back, reportedly due to security concerns. This year, the event included warships from India and China, but Russia's presence was much smaller than usual.
Multiple Russian media outlets are reporting that the Ukrainian intelligence service had very much planned an attack, including an assassination attempt on Putin and Belousov at the Navy Day parade. According to a report from The New York Times last week that cited two U.S. officials, "Pentagon officials were surprised by the allegation and unaware of such a plot."
The paper of record further stated, "Despite Ukraine's deep dependence on the United States for military, intelligence and diplomatic support, Ukrainian officials are not always transparent with their American counterparts about their military operations."
The New York Times suggested the call offered a "rare glimpse behind the scenes of a sensitive call between defense ministers," which "illustrates how much more there often is to private conversations between American and Russian officials than what is revealed to the public."
It would seem that Washington and Moscow are maintaining a dialog to manage escalation risks, even as the United States and the West continue to provide aid to Kyiv. However, Belousov reportedly "pointed to the danger" of such escalation due precisely to that aid. The two Pentagon sources also confirmed that Austin responded to his Russian counterpart by urging him not to threaten American forces in Europe or elsewhere.
The question is whether Russia actually knew there was an ongoing plot or simply wanted to ensure there would be no attack. It also remains unclear whether Washington instructed Kyiv not to carry out such a strike.
Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
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