Bloomberg: Recession Is Guaranteed to Hit Within a Year
Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi struck a similarly pessimistic tone, warning that a recession might come in the second half of 2023.
The latest models released by Bloomberg economists signal that a recession in the United States is effectively certain within the next twelve months.
The data revealed a 100 percent probability, up from 65 percent, of an economic downturn within the next year, as the economy contends with soaring interest rates, decades-high inflation, and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The alarming projection comes on the heels of a Wall Street Journal survey of sixty-six economists which estimated that the odds of a recession within the next twelve months are 63 percent. It was the first time since July 2020 that the survey pegged the probability above 50 percent.
“I think it’s a time to be cautious, and I think that if you’re running a risk-based business, it’s a time to think more cautiously about your risk box, your risk appetite,” Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon told CNBC on Tuesday.
“I think you have to expect that there’s more volatility on the horizon now. That doesn’t mean for sure that we have a really difficult economic scenario. But on the distribution of outcomes, there’s a good chance that we have a recession in the United States,” he continued.
Last month, in an effort to tackle inflation that is still above 8 percent year-over-year, the Federal Reserve approved a third consecutive seventy-five-basis-point interest rate hike and suggested that it will keep raising rates well above the current level. With the move, the central bank took its federal funds rate up to a range of 3 percent to 3.25 percent, the highest level since 2008. Rates are projected to reach 4.6 percent next year, according to a median estimate from the Fed.
“That environment heading into 2023 is one that you’ve got to be cautious and prepared for,” Solomon noted.
“In an environment where inflation is more embedded and growth is slower, you know, asset appreciation will be tougher. Are we going to get rooted in that kind of a decadelong scenario? I don’t know,” he added.
Meanwhile, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi struck a similarly pessimistic tone, warning that a recession might come in the second half of 2023.
“With this kind of low unemployment [at 3.5 percent], inflation’s going to remain a problem,” he told CNBC.
And if rising prices don’t come down in the months ahead, “the only way to get rid of that persistent stubborn inflation would be to push the economy into a recession,” he concluded.
Ethen Kim Lieser is a Washington state-based Finance and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn.