Could Presidential candidate Donald Trump be incarcerated before the 2024 presidential election?

Technically, yes, Trump could be incarcerated – but don’t count on it.

To end up behind bars, a few things will need to happen – and happen quickly.

Donald Trump will need to be convicted

First, Trump will need to be convicted.

Presently, Trump stands charged with 91 separate counts in four separate trials.

Mathematically speaking, Trump will likely be convicted on at least one of the 91 counts.

The four separate cases include: the Georgia election interference case; the New York hush money case; the federal insurrection case; and the federal classified documents case.

Of the four cases, Trump seems most likely to have violated the law in the documents case.

In the documents case, Trump stands charged of mishandling classified documents – which were found, after his presidency, in his private Mar-a-Lago estate. The charges have a hall monitor-esque quality, given that classified document mishandling usually carries an administrative penalty rather than a criminal penalty. Or, given that Trump, when still president could have unilaterally declassified the documents, yet failed to do so, rendering his “mishandling” of the documents a lazy failure just to declassify. Or, given that President Biden was also found with classified documents in his private office.

Regardless, Trump seems to have violated the letter of the law in possessing the documents, meaning his conviction is certainly possible. And if the documents case fails to produce a conviction – Donald Trump still faces charges in three other cases.

The Alvin Bragg-led New York case is a stretch even vindictive-minded liberals have trouble taking seriously. Conviction is still possible, of course, given that the jury will be selected from an anti-Trump jurisdiction. But the charges appear to have more to do with advancing Bragg’s career than with holding Trump accountable for wrongdoing.

Trump Sentencing will need to occur, and commence, before the election

In the event that Trump is convicted – which would make him the first former president ever criminally convicted – he will still need to be sentenced. The 91 separate charges each carry distinct sentencing guidelines, so it’s hard to predict what a sentence may actually look like. But many of the charges could result in a sentence that includes incarceration. Actually, Trump could hypothetically be facing significant jail time.

But assuming Trump is convicted, and assuming Trump is sentenced to prison. The judge can still decide when the sentence begins. And of course, for the sentence to begin before the presidential election, the judge will need to decide to incarcerate a former president, currently engaged in a reelection campaign. Such a sentence would of course be unprecedented.

Yet, the likelihood that a judge would have the opportunity to commence a sentence before the presidential election is unlikely. The election is just nine months away. A trial will need to proceed and conclude – with a conviction – within the next months. And then sentencing would need to happen, too. All on an aggressive timeline. So, the likelihood that everything falls into place, with enough tempo, to land Trump in prison before the election, is very low.

Liberals have been fantasizing about imprisoning Trump since 2015 or so. And while Trump does face legitimate charges with legitimate consequences, Trump’s imprisonment, pre-2024 election, will likely remain a liberal pipe dream.  

About the Author: Harrison Kass

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.

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