The other “known unknown” is the position of the Taiwanese government. As the Republic of China, the authorities in Taipei are also a claimant to the South China Sea, and the tribunal’s findings regarding Itu Aba (that it is not an island) affect Taiwan’s claims. In a statement issued promptly in the wake of the tribunal’s findings, Taiwan’s foreign ministry declared that “the arbitral tribunal did not formally invite the ROC to participate in its proceedings, nor did it solicit the ROC’s views. Therefore, the award has no legally binding force on the ROC.” The Taiwanese statement, however, was far less vituperative than Beijing’s and acknowledged the potential role for multilateral negotiations (a point the PRC has consistently rejected).

As important, President Tsai Ing-wen’s government has apparently decided to cease referring to the “U-shaped line” and “historical waters” as part of its claims to the South China Sea. This differentiates Taipei’s position from Beijing’s. Since the PRC claim is based, in part, on the 9-dash line (i.e., the “U-shaped line”) drawn by the previous Nationalist government, Taipei’s decision constitutes an important divergence, subtly weakening the PRC position.

Beijing is unlikely to be happy with Taiwan’s position. Beijing, however, suspended all formal communications links in May after Madame Tsai’s inauguration speech failed to use the phrase “1992 consensus.” Thus, Chinese interactions with the government in Taipei are limited—and there is little reason for Tsai to be solicitous of Beijing’s views. As important, by aligning herself with the PCA, Taipei also makes clear that it, unlike Beijing, complies with international law.

American Responses:

For the United States, whatever the Chinese response, the essential element to keep in mind is that the PCA ruling has not resolved the South China Sea issue. Beijing clearly has no intention of ending its expansive claims. As important, it has given little evidence of softening its position or even offering much in the way of compromise. Instead, the situation has merely evolved to a “new normal.”

This new normal, unfortunately, holds at risk a vital strategic waterway. Given the $5.3 trillion in trade that transits those waters, any disruption in shipping would promptly affect the global economy. Maintaining freedom of the seas is a matter of longstanding American principle. The right of all states (including China) to operate in the world’s waterways is something that the United States has fought for throughout its history.

It is therefore essential that the US be seen conducting freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) in these waters, to make clear that neither Chinese rhetoric nor Chinese saber-rattling will deter the United States from exercising its right to operate freely at sea. Thus far, unfortunately, the American pattern has been anemic. Since it was disclosed last summer that the United States had not conducted FONOPS in the waters around China’s artificial islands for three years, only three transits have occurred, and they’ve been of the limited “innocent passage” variety. Indeed, the main US challenge has been not announcing in advance and requesting permission for a rapid transit across the purported territorial waters that China claims for those features.

Now that the PCA has made a more definitive statement on the status of these various features (that none of them is an island), the United States should conduct more robust FONOPS in the disputed areas. This should include operating radars and conducting air operations, to make clear that China’s assertiveness, rejected in court, will not stand in physical reality either.  

At the same time, Washington must also help coordinate regional and global responses and reactions. No common approach has evolved among the non-Chinese claimants, weakening their bargaining leverage with Beijing. With the PCA findings, the United States should help Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam devise a common approach among themselves. This would substantially improve their ability to negotiate with the Chinese, frustrating Beijing’s typical divide-and-conquer approach. If Taiwan were to modify its stance to align with the tribunal’s findings, that could well produce sufficient political and diplomatic pressure to make Beijing reconsider its stance.

With the Chinese leadership preparing for a large-scale transition in next year’s 19th Party Congress, a concerted effort by all the other parties, and interested bystanders, could make the game not worth the candle for Xi Jinping.

Dean Cheng is a senior research fellow specializing in Chinese political and security issues at The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center.