The five weapons that China would fear must therefore be feasible and intelligent. They are, in no particular order:

5. Long-range armed unmanned aerial vehicles

The vulnerability of Taiwanese airfields and aircraft hangars to ballistic missiles from China’s Second Artillery Corps threatens to render conventional combat aircraft obsolete. The small size of Taiwan and the island’s proximity to China impose physical limits on where the Taiwanese Air Force (TAF) can base its aircraft, making dispersal a formidable challenge that hardened hangars and runway repair kits cannot compensate for. One answer to this challenge would be the acquisition or development of fixed-wing unnamed aerial vehicles (UAV) armed with air-to-ground missiles and with operational ranges long enough to permit intrusions deep into Chinese airspace. Using the General Atomics MQ-9 “Reaper” as a model, the relative small size of such UAVs, as well as their diminished footprint (e.g., ground support), would greatly enhance Taiwan’s dispersal capabilities (they could be based on outlying islands, where airfields would be vulnerable to PLA strikes, or on navy ships and modified “carriers”) and thus ensure survival in an initial attack by China.

Small, elusive, and low-signature enough to exploit identified weak points or “blind spots” in China’s air-defense architecture, Taiwanese UAVs could penetrate Chinese airspace and deliver a variety of offensive packages intended to disrupt airfields, radar sites, command-and-control nodes, naval bases, Second Artillery bases, and other critical infrastructure. Armed with air-to-ground missiles such as the “Wan Chien” (“Ten Thousand Swords”) developed by Taiwan’s Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST), UAVs could cause severe damage to PLA Air Force (PLAAF) airfields and undermine the ability of the PLAAF to sustain air operations over the Taiwan Strait. Other ordnance could include anti-radiation missiles to disable Chinese radar systems in preparation for bombing runs by conventional aircraft or a second wave of UAV sorties. Another option would be the use of “suicide” UAVs akin to Israel’s “Harpy” drone, which again could be suitable for disabling attacks against PLA radar installations.

Besides dispersal, a large-scale attack UAV program would be much less costly than the acquisition or development of fifth-generation aircraft and thus allow of the relatively quick introduction of several wings into the TAF. Moreover, the losses incurred using those systems during offensive operations over China would be moderate, both in terms of tax expenditure and deaths of highly trained combat pilots. Enough UAVs could therefore be “sacrificed” in order to overwhelm PLA air-defense systems, especially if multiple sorties were used in combination with other operations meant to disrupt China’s C4ISR and radar systems, such as offensive electronic warfare and cruise missiles (see below).

4. Short takeoff/landing multirole fighter aircraft

Although armed or “suicide” UAVs could perform multiple offensive operations inside China and have the added advantage of dispersibility, some functions—including air superiority—continue to ensure a role for manned conventional aircraft. Whatever people say, Taiwan cannot afford to cede control of its airspace to the PLAAF, as doing so would jeopardize the many ground-based systems that are needed for defense of the territory, including the Army’s state-of-the-art AH-64E “Guardian” Apache helicopters, which formidable weapons they may be, would be mere sitting ducks absent air cover.

However, China’s ability to render airfields inoperable through missile strikes poses a serious challenge to this type of platform. In fact, such a scenario has been used in some circles as an argument against Taiwan acquiring F-16C/D aircraft from the U.S. An answer to this would be the acquisition, or indigenous development, of short takeoff and landing (STOL) or vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft, which would mitigate the threat from the Second Artillery. Already, Taiwan has manifested its “interest” in the acquisition of the Lockheed Martin F-35B, though for political, budgetary (and one could add development) reasons, such intentions are unlikely to translate into political will in Washington to make such a system available to Taiwan. Other options remain, however, including procurement of the JAS 39 “Gripen,” a STOL multi-role combat aircraft produced by SAAB, or the domestic development of a similar type of aircraft.

While Taiwanese pilots, many of whom are trained in the U.S., continue to enjoy a qualitative advantage over their PLAAF opponents, that gap is slowly being narrowed as China acquires and develops 4.5th- and 5th-generation aircraft and may in the not-so-distant-future gain actual combat experience. By investing in modern air-superiority and combat aircraft, Taiwan would undermine China’s ability to own the airspace in the Taiwan Strait — a critical early-phase component in a major campaign to invade the island that, given the TAF’s ageing fleet, is becoming increasingly achievable.

Besides air superiority, a modern multi-role fighter with low radar signature and a longer combat range than the TAF’s legacy F-16A/B would be a major boost to Taiwan’s ability to conduct bombing runs over Chinese territory as part of a multilayered power-projection strategy that involves electronic warfare, cruise missiles and, as discussed, long-range combat UAVs.

3. Medium/long-range land-attack cruise missiles

Despite the rapprochement that has occurred between Beijing and Taipei since 2008, Taiwan’s defense strategy has adopted an increasingly offensive nature. Nothing better encapsulates this seemingly contradictory development than the Hsiung Feng (“Brave Wind”) family of cruise missiles, which provides the Taiwanese military with anti-ship and land-attack (LACM, e.g., HF-2E) options. Developed by the CSIST, Taiwan’s premier weapons research institute, the HF missiles have in recent years absorbed a larger share of the defense budgets allocated for R&D and production. According to reports, CSIST may be in the process of developing a medium-range (1,200km) surface-to-surface cruise missile.

Although Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has been vague on whether such a program is in the works, such an endeavor would make perfect sense. The introduction of medium/long-range, terrain-contouring cruise missiles (hypersonic would be a plus but probably is beyond the ability of Taiwan to develop for the time being) would complement the HF-2E, which has an estimated range of 650km, and make it possible for the Taiwanese military to target C4ISR, radar, Second Artillery (e.g., Dong Feng-15 launchers), airfields, and other critical sites in the PLA architecture deeper inside China. Equipped with either conventional or anti-radiation warheads, extended-range HF LACMs could exploit weaknesses in the Second Artillery Corps and disable its ability to initiate missile attacks against Taiwan or regional allies. Using well-placed intelligence sources, Taiwan could also threaten to disable China’s ability to initiate nuclear strikes by targeting critical command and control (C2) sites and thus disable its nuclear deterrent against the U.S. (arguably this would be an extreme measure, to be take only as a last resort during high-intensity conflict).

Through a combination of fixed and mobile launchers, Taiwan could ensure the survival of enough launch sites to maintain an ability to strike high-value targets inside China. Ship-launched variants of a medium/long-range cruise missile would boost the dispersal/survivability value of what is, beyond doubt, an indispensible means of retaliation.

Although Washington has voiced reservations about Taiwan extending the range of offensive weapons under the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), a changing regional context fueled by Chinese belligerence and possible renewed interest in including Taiwan as a regional security partner could convince the U.S. government of the virtues of assisting Taiwan with its missile program through cooperation or relaxed rules on the transfer of key technologies.

2. Submarines

Some people have given up, but continued interest in—and support for—Taiwan’s acquisition of diesel-electric submarines is a clear indication of their utility. Above all, the introduction of new submarines in the Taiwan Navy (only two of Taiwan’s total of four submarines are combat-ready; the other two belong to a museum) would pose a major headache for China, whose anti-submarine warfare capabilities remain limited. Anything that can go undetected and that can threaten PLA Navy (PLAN) vessels in the Taiwan Strait or in the Western Pacific (in Taiwan’s “rear”) will make Beijing pause.

Several plans have been floated for a Taiwanese submarine program. Although U.S. naval yards no longer make diesel-electric subs (and must therefore rent them from other countries, at high cost, for annual exercises), a number of European countries continue to build them and could provide highly useful know-how for the domestic development of medium-displacement ships by Taiwan. Japan, which is in the process of revising not only its rules of engagement but also the regulations overseeing the transfer of dual-use technologies, would also make a natural ally of Taiwan for an indigenous submarine program. A well-placed source told this author that under current laws, Japanese technicians could be temporarily “retired” and in turn hired by Taiwanese shipyards to help with hull designs, ostensibly the most challenging aspect of a submarine program. Evidently, any cooperation between Japan and Taiwan on defense matters would be hugely controversial and predicated on Tokyo’s (and Taipei’s) willingness to risk the ire of Beijing. Another option, which also remains distant for the time being, would be the acquisition of “old” Japanese submarines, which are taken out of service after only 18 years. U.S. defense contractors, provided that they can obtain the go-ahead from U.S. authorities, would play a key role in integrating sensors and weapons systems.

A handful of “quiet” submarines armed with torpedoes (anti-ship and coastal suppression), and possibly with cruise missiles (e.g., HF-3), would go a long way in deterring PLAN efforts to cross the Taiwan Strait or to attack it from its rear in the West Pacific, not to mention in protecting Taiwan’s sea lines of communication, cargo, and energy shipments. 

1. Special forces and ‘elite reserves’