Velayati’s revelations and attacks may imply that Khamenei intends to blame the failure of the nuclear negotiations on Ahmadinejad, change course without losing face, and try to reach a compromise with the P5+1 through the Rowhani administration. Given that Rowhani was Iran’s first chief nuclear negotiator (his memoir, National Security and Nuclear Diplomacy, is a must-read), is an expert on Iran’s national-security issues, and has good relations with Khamenei, the time may be approaching for a prudent Washington policy toward Iran that may result in a negotiated settlement.

Will Washington Respond Positively?

After Rowhani’s victory, the White House issued a statement that said in part, “We respect the vote of the Iranian people and congratulate them for their participation in the political process, and their courage in making their voices heard….The United States remains ready to engage the Iranian government directly in order to reach a diplomatic solution that will fully address the international community’s concerns about Iran’s nuclear program.” Secretary of State John Kerry praised the courage of Iranian voters.

If Washington continues ratcheting up its rhetoric about Iran and its nuclear program, such congratulatory statements ring hollow and meaningless. Only ten days before Iran’s elections, the United States announced new sanctions, which were used by Jalili and the hardliners in the campaign as another evidence of Washington’s insincerity toward Iran.

It has become glaringly clear that the sanctions that Washington has imposed on Iran have failed to produce the intended result, a regime change in Iran carried out by the Iranian people. Washington hoped that the Iranian people, hurt badly by the sanctions, would riot and topple the regime, and that the sanctions would bring Iran to its knees. That has not happened. Instead, though a large majority of the Iranian people despise the hardliners, they also demonstrated once again that they are fierce nationalists and reject outside intervention in Iran’s internal affairs.

Muhammad Sahimi, a professor at the University of Southern California, has been analyzing Iran’s political developments and its nuclear program for nearly two decades. His analyses have been published by major newspapers and websites in the U.S. and Europe. He is currently the editor of the website Iran News & Middle East Reports.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/Mojtaba Salimi. CC BY-SA 3.0.