It was not so long ago when the American media coverage of U.S. presidential elections was dominated by analysis of the role of the so-called “Jewish vote” in the races.

American Jews were concentrated in key electoral states like New York, California, and Illinois. The assumptions ran that they would contribute money to their favorite candidates, and since they tend to vote in large numbers, their vote could make a difference in close presidential and congressional races. Since American Jews supported Israel, presidential candidates would adopt pro-Israeli positions to appeal to this demographic.

In reality, the Jewish vote rarely helped to swing the outcomes of elections. The existence of the voting bloc contributed to the perception that Israel benefited from its role in the U.S. electoral process.

However, major demographic changes have led to the diminution of the power of the Jewish vote, especially when it comes to the Democratic Party and its growing electoral dependence on the votes of African Americans, Hispanics, and Muslims.

It isn’t surprising, therefore, that the Muslim vote has acquired more significance this year, especially in the race for Michigan’s electoral college votes. Here, there are simply more Muslim (and Arab) voters than Jewish ones.

The bottom line is that the Democrats need Michigan in order to win the presidential election, and that requires not angering the Muslim voters, who have been very critical of the pro-Israel policies of Democratic President Joe Biden.

These voters accused the president of giving Israel the green light to commit “genocide” against the Arab population of Gaza during the war there, with some of them taking up the moniker “Genocide Joe.”

Embracing this criticism of Israel are members of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party led by Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT), not to mention the members of the so-called “Squad,” who have been calling on the White House to reduce the military aid to Israel. Some of them, like Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) and Ilhan Omar (D-MN), have not hidden their deep hostility toward the Jewish State.

That explains the cold shoulder that Israel, and in particular Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has received from the Democrats, with half of their party’s legislators having boycotted his recent address to a joint session of Congress. Vice President Kamala Harris also declined to preside over the address.

The Muslim and progressive Democratic activists had pressured Harris not to choose Josh Shapiro, the popular governor of Pennsylvania, as her running mate, arguing that he was too pro-Israel. And, indeed, she didn’t choose him.

From that perspective, Harris represents the new face of the Democratic Party with its coalition of African-American, Hispanic, and youth activist voters, especially when it comes to the Israel-Palestine issue.

President Biden and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) belonged to the old guard of Democrats whose political worldview was shaped by the aftermath of World War II and the establishment of the Israeli state in 1948. For Biden, Pelosi, and other older Democrats, it was the memory of the Holocaust and the young, progressive post-1948 Israel that affected their views on the Arab-Israeli conflict.

In the eyes of many of the younger Democrats whose political odysseys started after the 1967 Arab-Israeli War and the consequent Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, Israel is seen as a “colonial power” repressing the “indigenous” Palestinian population.

At the same time, public opinion polls suggest that African Americans and Hispanics are less sympathetic to Israel’s concerns than whites, with some of them empathizing with the Palestinians. The latter is regarded as “third world” people of color, while the Israelis are perceived as analogous to Afrikaner white settlers in Apartheid South Africa.

The Republican Party, reflecting in part the position of Evangelical Christians, has embraced a pro-Israel position, as evident from the standing ovation Netanyahu received from their congressional members during his address on Capitol Hill.

For the Republicans, Israel is seen as the pro-American bastion in the Middle East, standing up to the global threats of radical Islam and Iranian aggression.

In a way, the Republican views on Israel are close to those of members of the right-wing Likud Party, with some of them advocating the annexation of the West Bank and Gaza to Israel.

The irony is that when it comes to the Jewish vote, most American Jews, reflecting their liberal attitudes, continue to support Democratic candidates. The majority of them voted for Biden in the 2020 election and are expected to vote for Harris this year.

Dr. Leon Hadar is a contributing editor with The National Interest, a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) in Philadelphia, and a former research fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute. He has taught at American University in Washington, DC, and the University of Maryland, College Park. A columnist and blogger with Haaretz (Israel) and Washington correspondent for the Business Times of Singapore, he is a former United Nations bureau chief for the Jerusalem Post.

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