Assassination and the American Presidency: What History Tells Us

Donald Truimp

Assassination and the American Presidency: What History Tells Us

No one knows what will happen in the coming months. But we must recognize that the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13 is unlikely to be the last violent incident in the 109 days before November 5—whether by another deranged loner or some avenger.

Shockwaves caused by the near-assassination of Donald Trump last Saturday have led to a chorus of condemnation of this heinous act. The two presidential candidates, their political campaigns, our nations other political leaders, and the editorial pages of the major press have been unanimous in insisting that however deep the divisions among us, differences should be settled at the ballot box—not with bullets.

Biden, Trump, and leaders from all sectors of our society have also been unanimous in asserting: this is not us. On Sunday, Donald Trump posted: UNITE AMERICA.” In his statement to the nation that night, President Biden declared: There is no place in America for this kind of violence.  Period.” 

Donald Trump

As we now attempt to make this aspiration a reality, we cannot avoid an ugly but undeniable brute fact: what happened in Butler, Pennsylvania last week was not abnormal. Over the course of our nations history, assassination has been a recurring, indelible strand in our presidential politics.

Of the 45 men who have served as President of the United States, how many have been targets of serious assassination attempts that nearly ended their lives? Twelve: 27%. Four died from gunshots. Eight survived near misses, most notably Teddy Roosevelt, who after having been shot in the chest insisted on finishing his campaign speech before going to the hospital.

Target

Date

Assassin

Andrew Jackson

January 30, 1835.

Richard Lawrence. Pistols misfired.

Abraham Lincoln

August 1864.

 

 

April 14, 1865, died April 15.

Unknown. Assassin missed, shooting off Lincoln’s hat. No exact date confirmed.

 

John Wilkes Booth. Shot Lincoln during a play.

James Garfield

July 2, 1881, died September 19.

Charles J. Guiteau. Shot Garfield in Washington train station.

William McKinley

September 6, 1901, died September 14.

Leon Czolgosz. Shot McKinley during visit to Pan-American Exposition.

Theodore Roosevelt

October 14, 1912.

John Schrank. Shot Roosevelt but was not life-threatening.

Franklin D. Roosevelt

February 15, 1933.

Guiseppe Zangara. Attempted to shoot FDR (as president-elect) but missed.

Harry Truman

November 1, 1950.

Oscar Collazo and Griselio Torresola. Assassins killed when attacking residence.

John F. Kennedy

November 22, 1963, died same day.

Lee Harvey Oswald. Shot Kennedy from window of nearby building.

Gerald Ford

September 5, 1975.

September 22, 1975.

Lynette Fromme. Pistol did not fire.

Sara Jane Moore. Attempted to shoot Ford but missed.

Ronald Reagan

March 30, 1981.

John Hinckley Jr. Shot Reagan but hospital treatment saved him.

George W. Bush

May 10, 2005.

Vladimir Arutyunian. Threw grenade but it failed to explode.

Donald Trump

July 13, 2024.

Thomas Matthew Crooks. Attempted to shoot Trump in the head, instead hitting his ear.

In addition to these 12, four other presidencies were shaped by assassinations of presidents or presidential candidates.  Lincolns successor, Andrew Johnson, lacked his political deftness and convictions about justice for the millions of freed slaves. Thus plans for post-Civil War Reconstruction fizzled.  Following John F. Kennedys assassination, Lyndon Johnson made the fateful choice to Americanize” the war in Vietnam. By 1968, 500,000 American troops were bogged down in that distant jungle. Opposition to the war became so intense that LBJ could not hold campaign rallies; riots in Black communities saw thousands of American troops dispatched to Los Angeles, Detroit, and Newark. When these conditions were further inflamed by the assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy, Richard Nixon won a landslide victory on a platform oflaw and order.”

Therefore what?

First, no one knows what will happen in the coming months. But we must recognize that the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13 is unlikely to be the last violent incident in the 109 days before November 5—whether by another deranged loner or some avenger.

Second, heightened risks demand much better performance than we saw from our government last week. Extraordinary risks require extra-ordinary vigilance and extra-ordinary preventive actions. The Director of the Secret Service and her agency demonstrably failed. To cite just one instance, where were the drones? The “eyes in the sky” used by many local law enforcement agencies would have identified a shooter climbing onto a roof a football field away from the podium and setting up his AR-15 assault rifle. Director Kimberly Cheatle and the others responsible for Trumps security last week should be summarily fired. The most competent counter-terrorist experts in our government work not for the Secret Service but for the Defense Department and intelligence community. They should immediately review the agencys current capabilities and procedures and do whatever is necessary to ensure significantly safer security for both presidential candidates going forward.

Third, taking into account the possibility that one or both candidates could find themselves in a shooters crosshairs in the next 109 days, both campaigns should review and revise campaign plans—and make substantial adjustments to limit risks. These should include moving to more defensible venues, limiting direct access to candidates, and other alterations that both candidates will resist.  Those attending events at which the candidates are present should also be more tolerant of more intrusive and time-consuming security measures required.

Donald Trump

Finally, both Biden and Trump have called for lowering the heat and toning down the rhetoric in the campaign. One does not have to agree with JD Vances tweet claiming that the Biden campaigns rhetoric led directly to President Trumps attempted assassination” to acknowledge the fact that rhetoric can incite violence.  As advertisers, pundits, and advocates of all causes know, by framing issues, assembling evidence (or claims), and making arguments, they shape what people think. And what individuals think informs what they do. At this point, both campaigns have identified the other candidate as an existential” threat to the nation. If someone or something actually poses a threat to the existence of what one holds sacred, then what is he justified in doing to protect it? Conversely, could two candidates who really appear to believe that their opponent poses a mortal threat to our democracy agree on some boundaries to constrain their campaigns?

For the sake of the country, we should all hope that they can and will.

About the Author: Dr. Graham Allison, Harvard University 

Dr. Graham Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University, where he has taught for five decades. Allison is a leading analyst of national security with special interests in nuclear weapons, Russia, China, and decision-making. Allison was the “Founding Dean” of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, and until 2017, served as Director of its Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which is ranked the “#1 University Affiliated Think Tank” in the world. 

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