This distinction is significant given the core geopolitical threat that the administration’s NDS is designed to grapple with: the “multi-domain threat” posed by China. As noted above, dissuasion is designed to address less immediate challenges through the leveraging not only of military but diplomatic and economic instruments of national power to convince a potential adversary not to pursue certain military and strategic actions that may make conflict more likely. But is this the nature of the challenge posed by China?

According to the administration’s own statements, China’s challenge is much more immediate. This suggests that either the administration’s assessment of the nature of the threat posed by China is exaggerated or its proposed strategy is misaligned with the threat it is designed to counter. Neither of which is a promising sign.

Dr. Michael Clarke is Senior Fellow at the Centre for Defence Research, Australian Defence College, and Adjunct Professor at the Australia-China Relations Institute, UTS. He is the author of American Grand Strategy and National Security: The Dilemmas of Primacy and Decline from the Founders to Trump (Palgrave 2021).

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