Because China faces less strategic risks in its adventurism in the Indian Ocean, it is able to concentrate most of its military force in the Western Pacific, where it already has a clear geographical advantage. Therefore, it will be crucial to apply more cost to China’s overtures in the Indian Ocean in order to multiply its risks throughout the greater Indo-Pacific. As China had enjoyed the strategic benefits of U.S. preoccupation away from Asia during the early 2000s, Washington must inversely apply pressure on China’s military maneuvers in the Western Pacific by more equitably engaging more proactively in the Indian Ocean, along with allies such as Japan, Australia, and European nations. Doing so will force China to recalculate its offensive posture, given the risks of losing ground in the Indian Ocean, especially since one of the major catalysts for Beijing’s increasing involvement in the Indian Ocean is to control and secure its vital energy trade routes fully.

However, for Washington, this will not be easy. The trust deficit between the West and the region is steep and with good reason. The new president and their team need to start making inroads immediately. Additionally, India’s support, because of its goodwill in the region, would be critical in this regard.

Therefore, as Robert Kaplan emphasizes, the Indian Ocean is becoming an undeniable area for global influence. If the United States fails to engage proactively with like-minded partners, the consequences towards U.S. interests and the established order will be damaging. This would be a core expectation from the new U.S. president: how the incumbent responds will determine the future of the Indo-Pacific region. 

Amit Dasgupta is a former diplomat who was India’s Ambassador to the Philippines. Follow him on X @amit_adg. 

Don McLain Gill is a geopolitical analyst and lecturer at the Department of International Studies, De La Salle University. Follow him on LinkedIn and X @DonMcLainGill95.

Image: DLeng / Shutterstock.com.